Tag Archives: S&P500
Are You Prepared for a Hard Landing?
How will the economy react to interest rates that remain relatively higher for longer? By this, the idea that there will be a soft landing seems highly unlikely. The economy, after decades of ultra-low interest rates, is not equipped to easily accommodate a sustained period of relatively higher interest rates. Continue reading
The Do-Re-Mi of Treasury Notes
This week brought forth new data points for two of the world’s greatest economic contrivances. These data points are important not so much because they provide a truthful depiction of reality. But rather, because in today’s centrally planned economy they can be big movers and shakers for the stock and bond market. Continue reading
Why Bonds Are Behaving Like Risky Assets
Since 1976, there have been eight years in which the S&P 500 declined. Bonds softened the stock market losses every time. When stocks went down, bonds went up. Since 1987, Alan Greenspan, and the Greenspan put, made sure of it. Yet, this time is different. Over the first nine months of 2022, bonds and stocks have fallen in tandem. And as stocks have fallen, Fed Chair Powell has hiked interest rates. Continue reading
Finding Opportunities in a Bear Market
“I can calculate the motion of heavenly bodies, but not the madness of people.” The remark was made by Sir Isaac Newton in 1720 upon losing £20,000 – a substantial sum at the time – speculating on South Sea Company stock. The madness of people, as Newton painfully found, is incalculable. It defies logic. Runs on emotion. And is best observed from a safe distance. Continue reading
