How to Trade the Warsh Doctrine

Posted on February 6, 2026 by MN Gordon

Over the last week, the precious metals market went through a meat grinder. Gold and silver went from moon shot to abrupt crash and back to liftoff in the span of about a week. It’s been a classic case of market psychology, leverage, and the sheer chaos that happens when Washington throws a spitball at Wall Street.

Several distinct features come to mind. The “Warsh Shock and Flaw”, for example, and why the inflation hawk narrative you’re hearing on the news is likely wrong.

To understand where we are, we have to look at how we started 2026. Quite frankly, January was insane. Gold wasn’t just rising. It was skyrocketing. By January 29, gold hit a staggering all-time high of $5,608 per ounce. Silver was even crazier, breaching $120 per ounce; up nearly 70 percent in a single month.

But, as anyone who’s followed markets for a cycle or two knows, prices cannot go vertically for long. A rapidly rising market will soon outpace the underlying economic reality. A peak is reached where the cost of assets exceeds the available pool of capital and the actual productivity of the economy. Continue reading →

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Ghosts of the Plaza Accord

Posted on January 30, 2026 by MN Gordon

Imagine you found a magical bank that lets you borrow money at 0 percent interest. Naturally, you’d take that free money and put it into a high-yield savings account or the stock market to pocket the difference, right?

That, in a nutshell, is the Yen Carry Trade. For over a decade, Japan’s interest rates were stuck near zero – or even negative. Investors, from massive hedge funds to Mrs. Watanabe (the stereotypical Japanese retail trader), borrowed trillions of yen for next to nothing, swapped them for U.S. dollars, and bought higher-yield assets like U.S. Treasuries or even high-flying tech stocks.

It was the ultimate infinite money machine until very recently. Now the glitch has started to fix itself as increased volatility ripples through global markets. The carry trade only works if the yield differential – the gap between Japan’s rates and everyone else’s – stays wide. But in 2026, that is starting to change.

The Bank of Japan (BoJ) finally blinked at inflation in early 2024 and started slowly nudging interest rates up from below 0 percent. Simultaneously, the U.S. Federal Reserve, under intense pressure from President Trump, has been slowly cutting rates. Continue reading →

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Meltdown in the Alps

Posted on January 23, 2026 by MN Gordon

Aggressive tariff threats. Punishing historic allies. Disregarding Danish sovereignty. Perhaps in President Trump’s mind the ends justify the means.

This week, Trump’s high stakes push to acquire Greenland quickly escalated into a geopolitical hubbub. On Tuesday, Greenland’s Prime Minister Jens-Frederik Nielsen told authorities to start preparing for a possible military invasion.

Trump’s motivation includes security and control of the G-I-UK Gap (the northern Atlantic gap between Greenland, Iceland and the United Kingdom) and ownership of vast amounts of rare earth elements. These ambitions all fit perfectly within the framework of the Donroe Doctrine and the objective of asserting undisputed American supremacy throughout the Western Hemisphere.

Denmark, however, remains stubbornly resistant to these advances. So far, the big chill emanating from these frigid northern waters is being felt directly in the fluctuating value of the U.S. dollar.

Typically, when the world gets nervous, the dollar acts like a comfortable weighted blanket that everyone hides under for safety. But this time, that blanket has holes in it as investors grow tired of the extreme diplomatic posturing. Continue reading →

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Countdown to May Madness

Posted on January 16, 2026 by MN Gordon

“Tis in vain therefore to go about effectually to reduce the price of Interest by a Law; and you may as rationally hope to set a fixt Rate upon the Hire of Houses, or Ships, as of Money.”

– John Locke, 1691

The Subpoena Strategy

May 2026 cannot come soon enough for Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell. That’s when his term is up. He can hang around as a Fed governor until 2028. Though, in the past, most Fed chairs have stepped down when their term is over.

Perhaps he will get picked up by one of the big banks and get paid big bucks. Or maybe he’ll write a book and go on a speaking tour and collect big fees. Or, if he’s smart, he’ll go fishing, indefinitely. Who knows?

In the meantime, he’s got President Trump and the Department of Justice (DOJ) all over his backside. This past Friday, as you likely know, the DOJ served the Federal Reserve with grand-jury subpoenas.

On Sunday night, Powell did something central bankers almost never do. He got in front of a camera and went on the offensive. Continue reading →

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