Kicking Xi Jinping While He’s Down

On a beautiful midsummer day, roughly six months ago, two distinguished men, of distinguished stature, crossed paths under precarious circumstances.  They are very much alike, these two distinguished men.

Both are men of enormous ego.  Both are filled with ambitious delusions for the future.  Both are masters of persuasion.  Both offer a cause and conviction people can rally behind.

Both deliver frequent promises of greatness.  Both hold up historical allusions of eminence, and do so with confidence and flair.  Both claim destiny is on their side.

Does one read The Wall Street Journal?  Does one not?  We don’t know.

But we do know there’s one great big significant difference between these two men.  A difference far beyond either of their control.

One has an eye to the past, and a futile desire to return to greatness.  The other has an eye to the future, and a burning ambition to own it.  The difference, in other words, is that between descent and ascent.  And the intersection of this difference is a natural point of conflict. Continue reading

Posted in MN Gordon, Politics | Tagged , , , , | Leave a comment

Washington’s Latest Match Made In Hell

One of the more enticing things about financial markets is not that they’re predictable.  Or that they’re not predictable.  It’s that they’re almost predictable…or at least they seem they should be.

The economy, like financial markets, ebb and flow in rhythmic cycles; though, they never quite repeat with perfection.  A shortage of wheat one year should compel production and an abundant harvest the next year.  You can darn near count on it, so long as there’s not a late season frost, a mite infestation, or some other act of God that wipes out the crop yield.

Indeed, the economy’s dynamic.  It expands.  It contracts.  But it does more than that.  For it’s more biotic than abiotic.  It changes.  It evolves.  It continuously reshapes and readjusts to the countless and ever changing inputs, innovations, and interactions of the people and resources that compose it.

The economy also adjusts to government intervention and the conceit of central planners.  An economy with a soft government touch is lively, energetic, and innovative.  Conversely, a heavy handed government calibrates an economy to be slow moving, lethargic, and predictable. Continue reading

Posted in MN Gordon, Politics | Tagged , , , , | Leave a comment

The Downside of Mindless Investing

High inflection points in life, like high inflection points in the stock market, are both humbling and instructive.  One moment you think you’ve got the world by the tail.  The next moment the rug’s yanked right out from under you.

Where the stock market’s concerned, several critical factors are revealed following a high inflection point.  These factors are not always obvious at first.  But they become apparent over time.  Most notably, it’s revealed that the period leading up to the high inflection point was more suspect than previously understood.

The stock market, as represented by the S&P 500, became a sort of money minting machine over the last decade.  Quarter after quarter, year after year, investors opened their brokerage statements to the delight of an inflating portfolio.  Investing was fun – and easy.

Without much interruption, investors got more out of the market than they put in.  They also got more out of the market than the underlying economy warranted.  The stock market delivered an illusion of prosperity that many investors mistook for the real thing. Continue reading

Posted in MN Gordon, Stock Market | Tagged , , , , | 8 Comments

The Recline and Flail of Western Civilization and Other 2019 Predicitions

“I think it’s a tremendous opportunity to buy.  Really a great opportunity to buy.” – President Donald Trump, Christmas Day 2018

Today, as we prepare to close out the old, we offer a vast array of tidings.  We  bring words of doom and despair.  We bring words of contemplation and reflection.  And we also bring words of hope and sunshine.

After all, the New Year’s nearly here.  What better time than now to turn over a new leaf?  New dreams, new directions, and new delusions, are all before us like a patch of ripe strawberries.  Today’s the day to make a double fisted grab for all of them – and more.

Rest assured, 2019 will be the year that everything happens precisely as it should.  Some good.  Some bad.  Indeed, each day shall unfold before you in symbiotic disharmony.  You can count on it.

But what else?  What are the essential anticipations as we embark on a new voyage around the sun?  What about stocks, the 10-Year Treasury note, gold, and everything else?  Are we fated for complete societal breakdown?  Will this be the year the Fed put finally bites the dust? Continue reading

Posted in Economy, MN Gordon | Tagged , , , , , | 1 Comment