State Sponsored Suicide

“A great civilization is not conquered from without until it has destroyed itself from within.”

– Will and Ariel Durant, The Story of Civilization

Enemy Within

How does a superpower die?

Does it come from the blinding kill shot of a hypersonic missile streaking through the sky? Or, perhaps, a rogue cyberattack that mortally destroys the national power grid?

Will the end of America come with foreign tanks rolling through New York or a massive, coordinated amphibious attack on Los Angeles?

These dramatic scenarios make for captivating conjecture. But they’re highly unlikely. If you look at the autopsy reports of the world’s greatest empires, the ultimate cause of death is rarely a sudden, overwhelming external blow.

Long before the barbarians breached the gates of Rome, the Roman denarius had been systematically devalued into a glorified copper token to fund a bloated bureaucracy. This was characterized by widespread domestic corruption and endless military expansion. Continue reading

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The Great American Squeeze of 2026

Does your American dream feel like it’s being put through a hydraulic press?

If so, you’re not alone. Between rising rent and gas prices, escalating grocery bills, and sky-high health insurance premiums, Americans are feeling a relentless squeeze from all directions. That’s the painful reality.

Recent economic numbers point to a weary consumer. In fact, consumer sentiment is at a 74-year low. To put that in perspective, Americans feel more pessimistic about the economy today than they did during the 2008 financial crisis, the stagflation of the 1970s, or the height of the 2020 lockdowns.

What’s going on?

Why does it feel like your paycheck is evaporating before it even hits your bank account, while the S&P 500 is hitting record highs over 7,400?

The answer has to do with the K-shaped reality of 2026.

For years, economists have tried to gaslight American workers and consumers. They blamed social media and partisanship. They reasoned that if your preferred politician isn’t occupying the White House, you complain a bit more to a pollster. Continue reading

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Big Discounts Await

If you’ve consumed any financial commentary over the years, you’ve likely heard of Gary Shilling. His legendary, against the herd, call on interest rates in 1980 set him up for a 40-year run that made him exceptionally wealthy.

If you recall, many investment gurus in the early 1980s were predicting the future while projecting the past. After a decade of raging price inflation, the popular dogma was to pack one’s portfolio with gold coins, fine art, and antiques.

This was the proven, surefire way to preserve one’s hard-earned wealth from the ravages of inflation. The recent past and simple logic pointed to higher consumer prices ad infinitum.

Nixon had closed the gold window in 1971. Prices had quickly spiraled out of control. America, it seemed, was about to go full Weimar.

Howard Ruff, in his investment newsletter The Ruff Times, was predicting the dollar would soon turn to hyperinflationary ash, like conifer trees in a California wildfire. It was inevitable. And imminent! Continue reading

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Liquidity At Any Cost

Over the last few years, it appeared that the Federal Reserve was finally attempting to get its house in order. After the insane pandemic-era peaks, where its balance sheet ballooned to over $8.9 trillion, the central bank spent years on a steady program of balance sheet reduction.

Through a process called Quantitative Tightening (QT), the Fed allowed bonds to roll off the books without replacing them. It successfully shrank its balance sheet to about $6.5 trillion by December 2025.

But if you’ve been watching the Fed’s balance sheet lately, the trend has pulled a U-turn. As of April 2026, that number has crept back up to over $6.7 trillion. The great contraction is over. The era of balance sheet expansion has returned.

So, why is the Fed’s balance sheet growing again? What does this mean for the value of the dollar in your pocket? And how does billionaire Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent – and his defense of swap lines to the Middle East – fit into this puzzle?

To understand why the Fed is expanding its balance sheet again, you must understand the mechanics of the financial system. Banks, as you know, no longer keep cash in a vault. Instead, they hold reserves at the Fed to ensure they can handle daily transactions and meet regulatory requirements. Continue reading

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