Jar Farming for Dummies

Starting a big war in the Middle East is much easier than stopping it. This is the lesson President Trump is now learning.

After one month of dropping bombs and launching missiles at Iran, Trump has called for a time out. A proposed one-month ceasefire. He even put a 15-point peace plan on the table. It was delivered via intermediaries in Pakistan.

The proposal included a comprehensive off-ramp to address everything from nuclear disarmament and missile limits to reopening the Strait of Hormuz. Tehran quickly put a match to it and countered with five conditions of its own – including demands for reparations.

It was but one month ago when Operation Epic Fury kicked off. What was intended to be a brief operation of destruction rained down on Iran, turned into something much greater.

The initial shock and awe adeptly targeted high-level leadership and missile infrastructure. But the operation quickly spiraled into a larger war of attrition that physically severed the world’s most vital energy artery – the Strait of Hormuz. Continue reading

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Why Gold Is Dipping While the Market Panics for Cash

Day after day decisions pile up. Some good. Some bad. Good decisions generally bring wealth, prosperity, satisfaction, and freedom. Bad decisions generally bring poverty, failure, discord, and captivity.

The U.S. national debt has now exceeded $39 trillion. That number is so large, and is growing so fast, that it’s nearly incomprehensible. Nonetheless, it will have a very real and direct impact on your savings and retirement. What’s more, your kids and grandkids will rue it.

Over many decades, Washington has been completely devoid of fiscal responsibility. Reckless spending has stolen the future from younger Americans. They will get to keep less of what they earn. In return, they will get less for the tax dollars they pay.

Moreover, because a greater percentage of their incomes will go to service the interest on past debts, instead of capital investment, they will be trapped in a slow growth or stagnating economy. As a result, younger Americans will have to make their way in an economy with fewer opportunities. Continue reading

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Running On Empty

The opening bombardment of Operation Epic Fury on February 28 succeeded in taking out the heart of the Iranian regime. But it also triggered extreme geopolitical instability in the Middle East and severed the aorta of the global economy.

The massive barrage of missile strikes, the chaotic swarm of counter-drone attacks, and the succession of Mojtaba Khamenei offer sensational headline material. Yet the real destruction, the kind that reshapes civilizations, isn’t happening in the smoky ruins of Tehran. It’s happening in the empty shipping lanes of the Strait of Hormuz.

Skyrocketing oil prices are a noted precursor to declining economic activity. Higher gas prices are not just an inconvenient market fluctuation. They act as a regressive tax on every single human being who eats, moves, or buys things. When the price of gas spikes and the pumps run dry, the very foundation of the global economy crumbles.

As of March 12, Californians are already paying $5.36 per gallon to fill up their cars. That may seem like a lot if you’re living elsewhere. In the south, for example, we’re paying $3.22 per gallon. Continue reading

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The Suffocating Fog of AI Generated Warfare

“War is the realm of uncertainty; three-quarters of the factors on which action in war is based are wrapped in a fog of greater or lesser uncertainty. A sensitive and discriminating judgment is called for; a skilled intelligence to scent out the truth.”

– Carl von Clausewitz, On War (1832)

Wrong Lesson from Caracas

Do you get the sense that the world is being run by a menacing algorithm?

Between the capture of Maduro in January and the current war in Iran, we’ve moved from strategic operations to what feels like a high-stakes beta test for AI generated warfare.

In early January, the world watched as Operation Absolute Resolve snatched Nicolás Maduro and his wife from Caracas in a lightning strike. To the White House, this was the ultimate proof of concept. A clean, surgical extraction that decapitated a regime with zero U.S. casualties.

But Iran isn’t Venezuela. By applying the Maduro Playbook to Tehran – specifically the assassination of the Supreme Leader on February 27 – the Trump administration ignored the fundamental difference between a crumbling narco-state and a deeply ideological, regional powerhouse.

Capturing Maduro was a police action. Martyring the Ayatollah was a religious and geopolitical earthquake. Instead of a peaceful transition, the USA-Israel consortium triggered a phased retaliation from Iran that Alastair Crooke notes is designed to systematically evict the U.S. from the Middle East entirely. Continue reading

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