A Modest Alternative to Monkeying with Currency Markets

Late last week, while many were busy paying tribute to their Irish brethren with good cheer and libations, the Group of Seven (G-7) nations were busy monkeying around in foreign exchange markets with their first coordinated intervention in over 10 years.  What was their goal?  To devalue the Japanese yen.

Following the earthquake, tsunami, and nuclear crisis, something a bit counterintuitive happened.  The yen didn’t go down…it went up.  In fact, not only did it go up; it soared.

“The yen surged 4.5 percent in 26 minutes March 17 to a post-World War II high,” reported Bloomberg.  Pushing up the yen was the concern that Japanese investors would convert foreign investments back into Japanese assets to pay for reconstruction.  Sensing a mass repatriation of assets was underway, foreign exchange traders did their part to further strengthen the yen.

For large exporting countries, like Japan, a stronger currency hurts their economy…their products become more expensive to international consumers and demand drops.  So the U.S. Federal Reserve, Bank of Canada, Bank of Japan, the European Central Bank, the Bank of England, the Bank of France, Germany’s Bundesbank, and the Italian Central Bank all put their citizen’s money to use in the foreign exchange market in a coordinated effort to devalue the yen. Continue reading

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Up the Creek Without a Paddle

This must be, without a doubt, one of the worst weeks we can remember.  Each day the news out of Japan goes from bad to more bad.  Here in the U.S. we gawk and grimace at the destruction wrought by the earthquake and tsunami.

Staples of developed countries, like power and fresh drinking water, have vanished as poor weather stifles relief efforts.  Immense human suffering, radioactive fallout, and worries that the next big one will hit any moment, leave survivors shell shocked.  A scenario any worse stretches the imagination.

At this moment economic consequences and money concerns seem shallow and trifling.  Yet that is our emphasis around here at the Economic Prism.  So we’ll go about our shallow business on your behalf…searching for hints and inklings as to what this means for money and markets – and more importantly, your money.

To get right to it, we offer one word of advice: Panic!

The stock market has been flying headlong into a crackup for months.  Last week, along the coast of northeastern Japan, it was delivered an all-time cataclysmic blow.  We find prospects for a quick rebound slim at best. Continue reading

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Advice Worth Considering

The Ides of March

“Beware the Ides of March,” warned a soothsayer on March 15, 44 B.C.  “Well, the Ides of March have come,” joked Julius Caesar.  “Ay, they have come,” replied the soothsayer, “but they are not gone.”

Before the day was over Julius Caesar was stabbed to death in the Roman Senate, marking an inflection point in Roman history.  “The Ides changed everything,” said Cicero.

Natural disasters, melting nuclear fuel rods, wars, riots, revolutions, Charlie Sheen…we’ve seen a rapid series of inflection points this year and it’s only the Ides of March.  What else could possibly go wrong?

A bond market collapse?  A stock market crash?  Perhaps both.  We’ll begin with some foreboding indications that are testing the nerves of bond investors…

An Unappetizing Mess

Inflation is the enemy of bond investors.  Once the inflation rate rises above a bond investors established yield, the investment generates a negative real return.  In other words, the income generated does not keep up with rising prices. Continue reading

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A Monument to Ugliness

Here in the land of fruits and nuts we paid $3.89 for a gallon of the cheap stuff on Monday night.  No doubt, gas prices will soon top $4 per gallon.  No doubt, these gas prices bite.  But not only do they bite at the pump…soon they’ll take a big fat bite out of the economy too…

“Nouriel Roubini, the economist who predicted the global financial crisis, said an increase in oil prices to $140 a barrel will cause some advanced economies to slide back into recession,” reported Bloomberg on Tuesday.

‘“If you had the oil price going up to where it was in the summer of 2008, at $140 a barrel, at that point some of the advanced economies will start to double dip.”’

Rahm Emanuel, Chicago Mayor-elect and former Obama Chief of Staff, once remarked that a crisis should never be ‘wasted.’  Sensing a budding crisis of rising gas prices, Atlanta Fed President Dennis Lockhart preemptively seized the opportunity on Monday to warm the hearts and soften the minds to QE3.

“If oil prices continue to climb, it could force the Federal Reserve to make a new round of asset purchases, according to Atlanta Fed President Dennis Lockhart,” reported CNNMoney.com. Continue reading

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