Scraps of Paper Be Damned

Today we begin with several data points…

First, if you hadn’t noticed, gold and silver bullion coins are selling faster than boysenberry funnel cakes at the county fair.  January 2013 U.S. Mint bullion sales of the American Eagle 1-ounce gold coin increased 47 percent from January 2012.  In addition, American Silver Eagle (1-oz) bullion coins sold by the U.S. Mint rose 22 percent in January 2013 from January 2012.

Second, Olin Corporation, the biggest retail supplier of small-caliber ammunition, enjoyed a jump in pretax earnings at its Winchester unit to $16.5 million during the fourth quarter from $500,000 the year before.  By our rough calculation that’s an increase in pretax earnings of 3,300 percent.

Third, the S&P 500 just notched its best January in 16 years.  For the month, it increased 4.84 percent.  What’s more, about $32 billion flowed into stock based mutual funds.

Here at the Economic Prism we don’t know what record gold and silver coin sales, gun and ammunition sales, and stock market sales have to do with one another. Continue reading

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The United States Can’t Afford Prosperity

Earlier this week it was revealed that something remarkable and totally unexpected happened during the fourth quarter of 2012.  The economy didn’t grow.  It shrank.

“Real gross domestic product – the output of goods and services produced by labor and property located in the United States – decreased at an annual rate of 0.1 percent in the fourth quarter of 2012,” reported the Bureau of Economic Analysis on Wednesday.

What’s going on?  Isn’t the economy supposed to be in full recovery mode by now?

The Federal Reserve, in a FOMC statement on Wednesday, said “that growth in economic activity paused in recent months, in large part because of weather-related disruptions and other transitory factors.”

Of course, blaming poor performance on the weather doesn’t work in most professions.  Still, for the central bank to the United States government, excuses are the norm.  Plus a flailing economy supports their program of creating $85 billion a month, from nothing but a ledger notation, to buy mortgages and treasuries. Continue reading

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Currency Wars and the New Age of Desperation

It must have seemed like a good idea at the time.  Of course, the time is always right for government policy makers to improve upon the natural order of things.  In their dim minds, the unintended consequences of their actions are not to be considered…they can always be rectified later by another policy fix.

Evidently, none of the officials from West Germany, France, the United States, Japan, and the United Kingdom, who gathered at New York’s Plaza Hotel on September 22, 1985, knew they were letting the genie out of the bottle.  Regrettably, once out, it’s near impossible to put back in.

By 1985, fourteen years after Nixon severed the last remnants of the linkage between the dollar and gold, floating currencies had resulted in grotesque distortions to the global economy.  The U.S. dollar had appreciated 50 percent between 1980 and 1985 against the Japanese yen, West German Deutsche Mark, and British pound – the currencies of the next three largest economies at the time.  American manufacturers could not compete with the dollar valued so much higher than its competitors. Continue reading

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When Not to Buy Stocks

The stock market’s really going for it.  The S&P 500’s just a scratch from its October 9, 2007, all-time high of 1,565.  Is it time to pop the champagne bottle and celebrate?

We’ll let you decide.  But do you recall what happened just after the October 2007 high was notched?  The stock market then went into freefall for nearly a year and a half.

By March 8, 2009, the S&P 500 bottomed out at 676…for a loss of 56.8 percent.  Since then the S&P 500’s run up over 120 percent.  Some say it will go higher.

Perhaps it will.  But if you believe that the key to making money in the stock market is to buy low and sell high – not buy high and sell low – then now is not the opportune time to invest.  Of course, there’s the possibility you could buy high and sell higher.  However, like jaywalking across an interstate highway, the potential risk and reward are not very favorable.

Still, people are tripping over themselves to get into stocks at a record pace… Continue reading

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