Yesterday’s stock market didn’t seem to give a darn but last Friday a notable revision was made. An important economic mile marker was shifted down and to the right…realigning the economy onto the road to recession.
According to the Commerce Department, U.S. GDP increased during the second quarter at a 1 percent annual rate – not 1.3 percent as initially estimated. While this is better than the 0.4 percent GDP increase during the first quarter of the year, this puts economic growth for the first six months of 2011 at just 0.7 percent. Additionally, year-over-year GDP has fallen 1.5 percent.
From what we gather nine of the past 11 recessions in the post-World War II era have followed a period of GDP growth of 1 percent or less. Perhaps we are about to make it 10 of the past 12. Obviously, the economy’s slowing down; not speeding up. And everyone knows it…
The Michigan Consumer Sentiment index, reported last Friday, was extraordinarily dreadful. The index fell eight points to 55.7 in August, from 63.7 in July, to its lowest level since November 2008. What’s more, the index has fallen almost 20 points in just three months. In an economy where consumer spending accounts for 70 percent of growth, GDP will likely follow consumer sentiment down Continue reading




