Last Friday the Commerce Department announced that private sector wages and government benefits both fell in August. The combination of these two undesirable data points resulted in the first monthly decline in overall personal income since October 2009. What this means is that by and large people didn’t gain financial ground in August; they lost it.
Also on Friday, Economic Cycle Research Institute (ECRI), the leading authority on business cycles, reported that their “most reliable forward-looking indicators are now collectively behaving as they did on the cusp of full-blown recessions, not ‘soft landings.”’ ECRI could be wrong, of course. However, they have correctly predicted the last three recessions without any false alarms in between. Here are several grim notes from ECRI on what to expect…
“A new recession isn’t simply a statistical event. It’s a vicious cycle that, once started, must run its course. Under certain circumstances, a drop in sales, for instance, lowers production, which results in declining employment and income, which in turn weakens sales further, all the while spreading like wildfire from industry to industry, region to region, and indicator to indicator. That’s what a recession is all about. Continue reading




