Global Cooling and Other Guesses for 2014

Posted on December 31, 2013 by MN Gordon

Today we break from the past, and leap over the present, to focus our attention on the 12 months ahead.  There’s a New Year in front of us and we step into it with excitement and anticipation.  What will 2014 bring?

Will the stock market continue its uninterrupted trajectory to the moon?  Will the new Fed Chair, Janet Yellen, make an even bigger mess of things than her bearded predecessor?  Will the economy finally shift into second gear?  Will the sky fall?

These are just some of the many questions.  But what are the answers?

“It’s tough to make predictions, especially about the future,” said Yogi Berra.  Nonetheless, we won’t let that stop us…we never have before.  Why start now?

Instead, we grin in the face of our limitations.  We sharpen our pencil and get after it with unblemished curiosity.  We may often be wrong.  But we are rarely without thought.

What follows, for fun and for free, are several simple guesses for the year ahead… Continue reading →

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Travesty of a Free Society

Posted on December 27, 2013 by MN Gordon

A quick look at the headlines tells us things are looking up.  Earlier this week, for instance, the Commerce Department reported that consumer spending rose 0.5 percent in November…notching the seventh consecutive monthly increase.  Obviously, this is big news for the U.S. economy.

Why is this big news?  In particular, this is big news because consumer spending accounts for about 71 percent of the U.S. economy.  When consumer spending is increasing, economic growth gets a good boost.

In fact, this is what appears to be happening.  According to the latest estimate form the Commerce Department, third quarter GDP increased at an annual rate of 4.1 percent.  That’s the best quarter for economic growth in nearly two years.

Naturally, the creams are ecstatic.  Christine Lagarde, Managing Director of the International Monetary Fund, said the IMF would raise its 2014 growth forecast for the U.S. economy… Continue reading →

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A Brief Message from Scrooge

Posted on December 24, 2013 by MN Gordon

“Running to the window, he opened it, and put out his head.  No fog, no mist; clear, bright, jovial, stirring, cold; cold, piping for the blood to dance to; Golden sunlight; Heavenly sky; sweet fresh air; merry bells.  Oh, glorious!  Glorious!

‘“What’s to-day!” cried Scrooge, calling downward to a boy in Sunday clothes, who perhaps had loitered in to look about him.

‘“EH?” returned the boy, with all his might of wonder.

‘“What’s to-day, my fine fellow?” said Scrooge.

‘“To-day!” replied the boy.  ‘“Why, CHRISTMAS DAY.”

‘“It’s Christmas Day!” said Scrooge to himself.  ‘“I haven’t missed it.  The Spirits have done it all in one night.  They can do anything they like.  Of course they can.  Of course they can. Hallo, my fine fellow!”’ Continue reading →

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How to Get Something for Nothing

Posted on December 20, 2013 by MN Gordon

The taste of a free lunch is always much richer.  The smell is more aromatic.  The taste is more flavorful.  Most of all, the belly leaves the table more contented.

But a free lunch is never really free.  We thought we ate one once.  Back when we were green, and the world was still our oyster, a superior took us out for lunch and generously picked up the tab.  It’s no coincidence we worked the next three weekends.

“It is an immutable economic fact,” said WWI Brigadier General Leonard P. Ayres many years ago, “that there is no such thing as a free lunch.”  Indeed, Ayres was on to something.  In fact, with that brief statement he crystalized one of the world’s essential axioms.  Like gravity or the golden rule, you can’t refute it.

Fred Brooks, the man who changed the IBM 360 series from a 6-bit to an 8-bit byte, thus allowing the use of lowercase letters, elaborated the idea when he said, “You can only get something for nothing if you have previously gotten nothing for something.” Continue reading →

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