Searching for Tahquitz

Each generation is disposed to its own unique myths and legends.  Perhaps an absence of prior experience is what compels the younger generation to pick up the torch of popular delusion regardless of if it’s pure madness.  The older generation, on the other hand, may have garnered false expectations through a lifetime spent living in a world that no longer exists.

“Myths and legends die hard in America,” remarked Hunter S. Thompson in The Great Shark Hunt, nearly 40-years ago.  No doubt, Thompson’s insight holds true today.  There are an abundance of myths and legends in America today that are bound for a hard death.  A partial listing includes:

The myth that U.S. Treasuries are the safest – default-free – investment in the world.  The legend of American exceptionalism.  The myth that everyone can live off the expense of their neighbors.  The legend that it is the President whom leads the country.  The myth that packaging up a sausage of prime and subprime loans into a collateralized debt obligation and rating them triple-A somehow vanishes risk.  And so on and so on, including… Continue reading

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What Fed Chair Powell Forgot to Mention

What are the chances of Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell being wrong?  The chances he’ll be wrong on the economy’s growth prospects, the direction of the federal funds rate, and inflation itself?  Our guess is his chances of being wrong are quite high.

What you see, unfolding before your very eyes, is a great exercise in futility.  To this endeavor, the Federal Reserve has claimed central authority of the command center.  The federal funds rate, the Fed’s balance sheet, economic stagnation, massive asset bubbles, and the limits of central planners are the topics of focus.  Where to begin?

Powell got into the central banking business through uncommon means.  To his credit, he’s not an economist.  This is a great improvement over former Fed Chair, and intellectual ditherer, Janet Yellen.  Like President Trump, we didn’t have the patience for her egghead PhD economist act.

Powell, on the other hand, is a lawyer turned investment banker. Continue reading

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Good Riddance Lloyd Blankfein!

“God gave me my money.” – John D. Rockefeller

One and the Same

Today we step away from the economy and markets and endeavor down the path less traveled.  For fun and for free, we wade out into a smelly peat bog.  There we scratch away the surface muck in search of what lies below.

Our unwitting inspiration is none other than long time Goldman Sachs CEO Lloyd Blankfein.  The journey that follows was prompted by word he’s preparing to step down as CEO.  One account said this could happen by year’s end.  Indeed, times like these are times for honest reflection and celebration.

If you recall, in the fall of 2009, not long after warm rays of sunshine began smiling down upon this bull market, Goldman Sachs’ top man, Lloyd Blankfein had an epiphany.  The way he put it to The Times of London was that he’s just a banker doing “God’s work.”  At the time we weren’t sure what Blankfein was getting at.  Were you?

Perhaps he was elevating himself, and his firm’s business, to the noble and thankless cause of efficiently allocating capital to its highest and best use. Continue reading

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How to Blow $12.2 Billion in No Time Flat

One month ago we asked: What kind of stock market purge is this?  Over the last 30 days the stock market’s offered plenty of fake responses.  Yet we’re still waiting for a clear answer.

The stock market, like the President, knows the art of ballyhoo.  Day after day, stocks behave in shocking and unpredictable ways.  They bluster and then recoil with the inconsistent elegance of a President Trump twitter tirade.

Wild multi-hundred-point swings on the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) have become the norm.  Up 300 points one day.  Down 300 points the next.  Do you hear anything?

All we hear from the stock market is a giant racket.  There’s much noise being made.  But there’s nothing of substance behind it.

Certainly, after a nine year bull market there’s risk of a massive sell off.  That much is abundantly clear.  Perhaps it could be another 50 percent bloodbath like what happened in 2008-09.  But when will the next great panic hit? Continue reading

Posted in MN Gordon, Stock Market | Tagged , , , , | 38 Comments