So Long Ben, and Thanks for All the Memories

Outgoing Fed Chair Ben Bernanke took a moment last Friday to bid farewell.  With his final speech as Fed Chair, he endeavored to clarify exactly what he’s been up to over the last eight years.  Many topics were touched upon; strangely, trashing the currency wasn’t one of them.

More insightful to Bernanke’s time as Fed Chair, however, is not his outgoing speech.  Rather, it’s a speech he gave several years prior, as a Fed Governor, where he laid down his rules for combating a deflationary depression.  Hence, we’ll pause a moment to review the Bernanke doctrine, as excerpted from his November 21, 2002 speech: “Deflation: Making Sure ‘It’ Doesn’t Happen Here.”

“The U.S. Government has a technology, called a printing press (or, today, its electronic equivalent), that allows it to produce as many U.S. dollars as it wishes at essentially no cost,” explained Bernanke.  “By increasing the number of U.S. dollars in circulation, or even by credibly threatening to do so, the U.S. Government can also reduce the value of a dollar in terms of goods and services, which is equivalent to raising the price in dollars of those goods and services.” Continue reading

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Tree Branch Economics

One trouble with government programs is they debilitate people.  Recipients believe they are getting a benefit when, in effect, they are being harmed.  Time and time again, under the influence of a benevolent hand of government, otherwise able and intelligent people are immobilized.

Take unemployment benefits, for instance.  Millions of capable people, through no fault of their own, lost their jobs over the last half decade.  But what’s worse, because of this, they inadvertently became dependents of the state.

At first they may have been demoralized to be on the dole and eager to get off of it.  They went from jobless to state dependency by accident.  Overtime, however, they were disabled by the government’s administered benefits…they couldn’t escape.

Regrettably, many good accidental dependents were just dumped from their extended unemployment benefits.  In fact, it’s estimated that 1.3 million Americans lost unemployment benefits last Saturday when a federal emergency program started during the Great Recession expired.  Moreover, as the year progresses even more people will be hung out to dry… Continue reading

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Global Cooling and Other Guesses for 2014

Today we break from the past, and leap over the present, to focus our attention on the 12 months ahead.  There’s a New Year in front of us and we step into it with excitement and anticipation.  What will 2014 bring?

Will the stock market continue its uninterrupted trajectory to the moon?  Will the new Fed Chair, Janet Yellen, make an even bigger mess of things than her bearded predecessor?  Will the economy finally shift into second gear?  Will the sky fall?

These are just some of the many questions.  But what are the answers?

“It’s tough to make predictions, especially about the future,” said Yogi Berra.  Nonetheless, we won’t let that stop us…we never have before.  Why start now?

Instead, we grin in the face of our limitations.  We sharpen our pencil and get after it with unblemished curiosity.  We may often be wrong.  But we are rarely without thought.

What follows, for fun and for free, are several simple guesses for the year ahead… Continue reading

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Travesty of a Free Society

A quick look at the headlines tells us things are looking up.  Earlier this week, for instance, the Commerce Department reported that consumer spending rose 0.5 percent in November…notching the seventh consecutive monthly increase.  Obviously, this is big news for the U.S. economy.

Why is this big news?  In particular, this is big news because consumer spending accounts for about 71 percent of the U.S. economy.  When consumer spending is increasing, economic growth gets a good boost.

In fact, this is what appears to be happening.  According to the latest estimate form the Commerce Department, third quarter GDP increased at an annual rate of 4.1 percent.  That’s the best quarter for economic growth in nearly two years.

Naturally, the creams are ecstatic.  Christine Lagarde, Managing Director of the International Monetary Fund, said the IMF would raise its 2014 growth forecast for the U.S. economy… Continue reading

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