The Number One Investment for 2015

For entertainment and instruction, over the weekend we took a scan of the news pages for expert tips on how to invest for 2015.  There were a variety of ideas.  These included some simple and practical suggestions…like paying down adjustable rate loans before interest rates go up.  Saving 10 to 15 percent of gross income for retirement didn’t sound like a bad idea either.

Other ideas were a bit mixed.  They sounded good, initially.  But they seemed to come up short upon further review.

For example, National Economic Forecaster Robert Genetiski says “individuals should avoid making investment decisions based on forecasts of either major short-term gains or gloom and doom.”  The first part of this advice is reasonable.  Chasing a hot stock tip is generally a bad way to invest.

But the second part of Genetiski’s advice is lacking.  Here at the Economic Prism we believe one should always consider doom and gloom when making investment decisions.  Just because something is unlikely doesn’t mean it isn’t important…especially if the risks are great. Continue reading

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One Destructive Bad Idea

Over the years, we’ve come across many bad ideas.  Rap music, for instance.  Or legal tender laws.  But the real measurement of a bad idea is how much popular destruction it can bring.

It’s a real shame there’s no warning system, like an air raid siren, to tell people to take cover from the bad idea de jour.  For a bad idea coupled with a good story will compel vast populations to ruin themselves.  Once established, there’s no turning back.  Bad ideas must run their natural course leaving destruction in their wake.  Then they must run their course again, and again.

Communism, for example, made an utter mess of the 20th century.  Armed with all the smartest guys in the room, the Soviet Union’s state planning committee drafted up five year plans for what it called the centralized development of the national economy.

The first five year plan brought to realization the grand idea of collective farming.  What could be more efficient than commanding what crops to plant and acreages by bureaucrats in Moscow? Continue reading

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Disaster and Other Estimations for 2015

The New Year is nearly here.  So are the new hopes and new dreams.  We’re certain 2015 will be the year you get everything you deserve in life.  But what else will happen?

Today we hold a licked index finger up to see what way the winds will be blowing in 2015.  Obviously, this isn’t an exact science.  Making predictions about the future is more art than science anyway.

But this technique is as good as any we’ve ever come across.  It is certainly better than taking a chart and extending a trend line out into the future.  For, where investing is concerned, past performance is no guarantee of future results.

Hence, chasing last year’s star performers or hot asset classes can be a good way to lose money.  Chances are you will be buying at all-time highs.  This is what most people do…they buy high and sell low.

Alternatively, investing in beaten down companies that have suffered from dreadful industry conditions can be more profitable. Continue reading

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Blessings from Scrooge

“Running to the window, he opened it, and put out his head.  No fog, no mist; clear, bright, jovial, stirring, cold; cold, piping for the blood to dance to; Golden sunlight; Heavenly sky; sweet fresh air; merry bells.  Oh, glorious!  Glorious!

‘“What’s to-day!” cried Scrooge, calling downward to a boy in Sunday clothes, who perhaps had loitered in to look about him.

‘“EH?” returned the boy, with all his might of wonder.

‘“What’s to-day, my fine fellow?” said Scrooge.

‘“To-day!” replied the boy.  ‘“Why, CHRISTMAS DAY.”

‘“It’s Christmas Day!” said Scrooge to himself.  ‘“I haven’t missed it.  The Spirits have done it all in one night.  They can do anything they like.  Of course they can.  Of course they can. Hallo, my fine fellow!”’ Continue reading

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