Tilting the Odds in Your Favor

Jim Rogers, renowned investor and author, is convinced agriculture will be a future economic boom area.  He believes there will be further food shortages.  He also thinks there will be opportunities for hard workers because no one wants to farm land.

“If you want to invest in agriculture, the best thing you should do is become a farmer,” said Rogers.  “Buy yourself some land and become a farmer if you’d be any good at it – or even if you’d just be mediocre at it – because there’s going to be some fortunes made in agriculture and when an industry breaks full faith even mediocre people make a lot of money because everything is going right.

“So if you really want to make a lot of money, that’s the best way to do it.  Alternatively, you can buy land and lease it out if you can find a good farmer.

“There are other ways to make money in agriculture, of course.  You can open a chain of restaurants in the agricultural areas of the world because the farmers are going to be much more successful in the next 30 years than in the last 30 years.  Or open shops. Continue reading

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A Stock Market Spectacular

What a week.  Can you believe it?  Stock prices have gone bipolar.  What is going on?

According to “Bond King” Bill Gross, “The good times are over.”  He’s predicting “minus signs in front of the returns for many asset classes” by the end of 2015.  Gross also believes falling oil prices and a strong U.S. dollar will limit the Federal Reserve’s ability to raise interest rates.

Like Gross, we believe 2015 will be a rough year for stocks.  Where stock volatility was minimal in 2014, in 2015 price volatility will be the norm.  The first full trading week of the New Year confirms this insight.

For instance, during the first part of the week stocks were down…a lot.  On Monday the DOW fell 320 points, and on Tuesday it fell 133 points.  By mid-week stocks were up…the DOW jumped 212 points on Wednesday.  Then, yesterday, the DOW jumped another 323 points.

Your guess is as good as ours as to how the week closes. Continue reading

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The Number One Investment for 2015

For entertainment and instruction, over the weekend we took a scan of the news pages for expert tips on how to invest for 2015.  There were a variety of ideas.  These included some simple and practical suggestions…like paying down adjustable rate loans before interest rates go up.  Saving 10 to 15 percent of gross income for retirement didn’t sound like a bad idea either.

Other ideas were a bit mixed.  They sounded good, initially.  But they seemed to come up short upon further review.

For example, National Economic Forecaster Robert Genetiski says “individuals should avoid making investment decisions based on forecasts of either major short-term gains or gloom and doom.”  The first part of this advice is reasonable.  Chasing a hot stock tip is generally a bad way to invest.

But the second part of Genetiski’s advice is lacking.  Here at the Economic Prism we believe one should always consider doom and gloom when making investment decisions.  Just because something is unlikely doesn’t mean it isn’t important…especially if the risks are great. Continue reading

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One Destructive Bad Idea

Over the years, we’ve come across many bad ideas.  Rap music, for instance.  Or legal tender laws.  But the real measurement of a bad idea is how much popular destruction it can bring.

It’s a real shame there’s no warning system, like an air raid siren, to tell people to take cover from the bad idea de jour.  For a bad idea coupled with a good story will compel vast populations to ruin themselves.  Once established, there’s no turning back.  Bad ideas must run their natural course leaving destruction in their wake.  Then they must run their course again, and again.

Communism, for example, made an utter mess of the 20th century.  Armed with all the smartest guys in the room, the Soviet Union’s state planning committee drafted up five year plans for what it called the centralized development of the national economy.

The first five year plan brought to realization the grand idea of collective farming.  What could be more efficient than commanding what crops to plant and acreages by bureaucrats in Moscow? Continue reading

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