Riding the Waves

Something practically impossible happened on Tuesday.  It rained in Los Angeles in June.  Not a lot…less than a tenth of an inch.  But it was enough for us to discover we had a hole in the bottom of our shoe as we crossed John Fante Square.

Yet that wasn’t the only thing practically impossible to happen on Tuesday.  Bond and gold markets simultaneously projected inflation and deflation.  Yields on the 10-year Treasury note jumped to 2.41 percent, anticipating inflation.  Yet gold dropped 0.19 percent to 1,175 per ounce, anticipating deflation.

On Wednesday, things were still a little discombobulated.  Ten year Treasury yields eclipsed 2.47 percent, while gold held steady.  Then, yesterday, yields on the 10-year Treasury note pulled back to 2.38 percent.  Gold held at about $1,182 an ounce.  Crude oil bounced around $60 a barrel.

The stock market continues to yo-yo up and down.  The DOW has gone up and down, and down and up, all year.  But it has nothing to show for its troubles.  It’s currently about where it was when the year started. Continue reading

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Hillary Clinton Duh? No Duh!

Hillary Clinton’s condescending utterances have received so much gratuitous applause from Liberals over the years that it is now fatiguing to muster dissent.  What the nagging shrew lacks in substance she compensates for with longevity…and a seemingly endless pool of financial backing.

No matter how much you think you’ve seen the last of her, she flares up like ringworm jock itch at the most inopportune times.  She just won’t go away.  How is it, that in the year 2015, we must endure another bout of Hillary?  It seems this has been going on forever.

Back in the year 1997, for example, we recall being greatly belabored by an intellectual Progressive’s reverences for Ms. Clinton.  The Great Thinker placed a great deal of importance on her dim intellect…that she would lead us into the Promised Land.

We don’t know whatever happened to this happy fellow.  Perhaps he’s still advancing the cause of democracy to better suit his existence at the expense of his friends and neighbors.  Regardless, Hillary’s still here.  We’ve learned to make the best of it. Continue reading

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Forecasts of Gloom

Just like the clockwork of a rooster’s call at dawn.  On the first day of June each year, coastal Southern California becomes encapsulated by dense gloom.  You can guarantee it.

Out of state visitors mistake the gloom for smog.  But it’s something very different.  For the legendary Los Angeles smog disappeared in the early 1990s when the state enacted mandatory vehicle smog testing.

What a hassle and annoying expense.  But at least the San Gabriel Mountains are now visible from Long Beach most days of the year.  Plus school kids rarely now have recess called off for elevated ozone levels…unlike the good old days.

June gloom is a natural occurrence quite different than smog.  Warming temperatures in the inland region draw the dense grey marine layer several miles in each morning where it sits over the vast coastal plain.  Blue skies don’t appear until the sun burns the miasma off around 1 PM only to be covered up again by the following morning.

Some can’t stand it.  Others enjoy the brief – about 3 week – reprieve from the upcoming summer heat while it lasts. Continue reading

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Why Residential Rental Prices are off their Rocker

Why Residential Rental Prices are off their Rocker“Only buy something that you’d be perfectly happy to hold if the market shut down for 10 years,” go the sage words of Warren Buffett.  At present, this advice is especially important.  For asset prices are expensive.

Stocks are near record valuations.  Buying even the best companies today could result in holding stocks that are underwater for a decade – or more.  These are the risks when prices have been pushed to their limits.

We’ve gone over the absurdity of current valuations so many times we’ve lost count.  No matter how you slice and dice it – be it the Shiller’s Cyclically Adjusted Price Earnings (CAPE) ratio or the Buffett indicator – overall stock prices are a complete and total rip off.  This simple fact is being largely ignored at the moment.

On top of that, treasury yields – which move inverse to price – are skidding along the bottom of a 30-plus year credit cycle.  When yields finally turn, they could rise for the next 20 years.  Conversely, asset prices will deflate as borrowing costs increase. Continue reading

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