The Biggest Baddest Bubble of All

“The Fed is ‘like a wet blanket all over the economy,”’ said David Stockman on The Daily Ticker on Tuesday.  “Everything is being micromanaged by them … they will fail and take private enterprise economy down with it.”

The former Reagan budget director, private equity investor and author was busy this week promoting his new book, The Great Deformation: The Corruption of Capitalism in America.  In fact, Stockman started off the week with a Sunday New York Times op-ed, which explores many of the themes covered in this newsletter.

It’s quite a lengthy article.  Nonetheless, it’s well worth your perusal.  You can read it here.

In the meantime, we’ll quote Stockman’s closing statement…

“The United States is broke — fiscally, morally, intellectually — and the Fed has incited a global currency war (Japan just signed up, the Brazilians and Chinese are angry, and the German-dominated euro zone is crumbling) that will soon overwhelm it.  When the latest [stock market] bubble pops, there will be nothing to stop the collapse. Continue reading

Posted in Inflation, MN Gordon | Tagged , , , , , | 2 Comments

Open Season on Savers

Austrian economist Ludwig von Mises called it time preference.  That is, the assumption that, all else being equal, people prefer attainment of a given end sooner rather than later.  People prefer present satisfaction over future satisfaction.

These days’ people’s time preference is instant.  They want instant gratification.  Mises called this high time preference.

Obviously, the discipline of saving and investing doesn’t conform to such a high time preference.  Nonetheless, people also want more…lots more.  More stuff, nicer, things, a bigger house, exotic vacations.

But to enjoy greater consumption, people must first produce.  The cost of production takes time.  It also takes sacrifice.  Mises called the willingness to sacrifice present consumption for greater future consumption, a low time preference.  The result of having a low time preference is increased savings.

Low time preference people (i.e. savers), are critical to the process of wealth generation and the strength of capital markets.  Without them money would be instantly spent and capital would not be available to improve production. Continue reading

Posted in Inflation, MN Gordon | Tagged , , , , , , | Leave a comment

Ignore Banks’ Bearish Statements on Gold

Ignore Banks’ Bearish Statements on Gold
By Jeff Clark, Senior Precious Metals Analyst

Goldman Sachs has lowered its gold price projections and says the metal is headed to $1,200.  Credit Suisse and UBS are bearish.  Citigroup says the gold bull market is over.

So I guess it’s time to pack it in, right?

Not so fast.  As we’ve written before, these types of analysts have been consistently wrong about gold throughout this bull cycle.  Another reason to disagree, however, is history; we’ve seen this movie before.  In the middle of one of the greatest gold bull markets in modern history – the one that culminated in the 1980 peak – gold experienced a 20-month, one-way decline.  Every time it seemed to stabilize, the bottom would fall out again.  From December 30, 1974 to August 25, 1976, gold fell a whopping 47 percent.

1976 had to be a tough year for gold investors.  The price had already been declining for a year – and it just kept on sinking.  Since that’s similar to what we’re experiencing today, I wondered, What were the pundits were saying then?  I wanted to find out. Continue reading

Posted in Economy, Jeff Clark | Tagged , , , , , , | Leave a comment

Fighting the Next War

The unemployment rate remains stubbornly high.  But other than that, the economy seems to be pleasantly improving.  Sure the dark clouds on the horizon from Cyprus could take some of the wind out of the stock market’s sails.  Nonetheless, the stock market’s needed an excuse to pause all year.

More will be revealed this week.  Later today, for instance, durable-goods orders, consumer confidence, and new home sales will be reported.  Then, on Thursday, 4th quarter GDP revision and weekly jobless claims will be announced.  Come Friday, consumer spending and consumer sentiment will be released.

Naturally, we’ll be monitoring the situation for you…looking for inklings and indicators for what’s next.  Have the negative moods fabricated by the 2008 financial crisis and Great Recession finally swung to the positive?  Are happy days here again?

Looking around, it sure feels like it.  Consumers are consuming.  Producers are producing.  Moreover, for the first time in years, confidence and assurance are returning to the economy like migratory birds to Southern California during springtime nesting season. Continue reading

Posted in MN Gordon, Stock Market | Tagged , , , , , | Leave a comment