The U.S. stock market, as measured by the S&P 500, is closing out another solid year. With just a few trading days left in 2025, it’s up over 17 percent. Once again, buy and hold index fund investors have been rewarded for their mindless rigor.
Good for them. A bull market is no time for sound thinking and contemplating risk. Blindly riding the index higher is both fun and easy. The results are gratifying.
Nonetheless, we believe now is precisely the time to consider risk and a prudent portfolio allocation. It is highly likely 2026 will be less pleasant for S&P 500 index investors who bet the farm on its perpetual buoyancy.
The uncomfortably fact is we’re currently staring at a stock market that is, by almost every historical metric, priced for perfection. In our experience, perfection is a very high bar to clear.
Fundamentals may be boring. They may seem irrelevant and outdated after such an extensive bull market run. But if you ignore them, you’re doing so at great peril. Continue reading







