Why Market Fundamentals Always Win in the End

The U.S. stock market, as measured by the S&P 500, is closing out another solid year. With just a few trading days left in 2025, it’s up over 17 percent. Once again, buy and hold index fund investors have been rewarded for their mindless rigor.

Good for them. A bull market is no time for sound thinking and contemplating risk. Blindly riding the index higher is both fun and easy. The results are gratifying.

Nonetheless, we believe now is precisely the time to consider risk and a prudent portfolio allocation. It is highly likely 2026 will be less pleasant for S&P 500 index investors who bet the farm on its perpetual buoyancy.

The uncomfortably fact is we’re currently staring at a stock market that is, by almost every historical metric, priced for perfection. In our experience, perfection is a very high bar to clear.

Fundamentals may be boring. They may seem irrelevant and outdated after such an extensive bull market run. But if you ignore them, you’re doing so at great peril. Continue reading

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From Inflation to Implosion

Economic Prism Insights: Articles on Gold, Stocks, Inflation, and FOMCThe 2026 fiscal year started on October 1. The Treasury, so far, has reported its spending for the first two months. The dismal results should come as no surprise.

The U.S. government has already run up a deficit of $458 billion – and there’s still 10 more months to go. Specifically, for the months of October and November there were total outlays of $1.198 trillion, with receipts of just $740 billion. The difference – the $458 billion – was made up with debt. Of the $1.198 trillion in outlays, $179 billion was to pay the net interest on the debt.

Here at the Economic Prism, we remember when the ‘annual’ deficit first exceeded $450 billion. You may too. It wasn’t very long ago – 2008 to be exact. At the time we thought spending was totally out of control. Little did we know, just one year later, 2009, the budget deficit would spike to $1.4 trillion. Now trillion-dollar annual deficits are the norm.

With this current rate of spending, the 2026 fiscal year deficit will come in around $2.75 trillion. This deficit, like each annual deficit, will be racked and stacked on top of the total government debt. After many decades of extreme deficits, the U.S. national debt is at $38.5 trillion – and rising fast. Continue reading

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The Great Digital Dollar Switcheroo

U.S. government finances are failing. But instead of allowing things to continue to their inevitable demise, the central planners are looking to pull off another switcheroo. Like the issuance of Greenbacks during the Civil War or FDR’s gold confiscation in 1933, the U.S. government is scheming to radically change the form and feel of money once again. The goal is to mask an outright default. Yet make no mistake, the little guy – that’s you – will get screwed.

The GENIUS Act and the New Digital Dollar

America is 54 years into its experiment with pure fiat money, which followed the termination of the Bretton Woods Agreement in 1971. We are now witnessing the start of another financial re-engineering of money. The move to a digitally native, stablecoin-anchored dollar system.

This is happening whether you like it or not. In fact, the overarching legislation has already been put in place. Continue reading

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Spoon-Fed Labor

Benjamin Franklin, in a 1789 letter to Jean-Baptiste Le Roy, remarked that “in this world nothing can be said to be certain, except death and taxes.”

There is, however, a third certainty that is often cited. That is, change.

Change, of course, can be for the better. But it can also be for the worse.

With the prospect of change, there also comes fear. Humans, particularly those lacking in spiritual guidance, can have an intense fear of the unknown.

The swift conquest of Artificial Intelligence is currently threatening a scope and scale of change unlike anything in living memory – if ever. The complete overhaul of modern employment, and the mass loss of livelihoods, is inciting mass fear across the general population.

But what if it’s all for the best?

Today we turn to Joel Bowman, and his Notes From the End of the World, for unique perspective and insights you won’t hear anywhere else. After giving it a read, please head over to his website and subscribe to his newsletter so you can stay abreast of all his latest deliberations. Continue reading

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