Disaster and Other Estimations for 2015

Posted on December 30, 2014 by MN Gordon

The New Year is nearly here.  So are the new hopes and new dreams.  We’re certain 2015 will be the year you get everything you deserve in life.  But what else will happen?

Today we hold a licked index finger up to see what way the winds will be blowing in 2015.  Obviously, this isn’t an exact science.  Making predictions about the future is more art than science anyway.

But this technique is as good as any we’ve ever come across.  It is certainly better than taking a chart and extending a trend line out into the future.  For, where investing is concerned, past performance is no guarantee of future results.

Hence, chasing last year’s star performers or hot asset classes can be a good way to lose money.  Chances are you will be buying at all-time highs.  This is what most people do…they buy high and sell low.

Alternatively, investing in beaten down companies that have suffered from dreadful industry conditions can be more profitable. Continue reading →

Posted in Economy, MN Gordon | Tagged , , , , | Leave a comment

Blessings from Scrooge

Posted on December 26, 2014 by MN Gordon

“Running to the window, he opened it, and put out his head.  No fog, no mist; clear, bright, jovial, stirring, cold; cold, piping for the blood to dance to; Golden sunlight; Heavenly sky; sweet fresh air; merry bells.  Oh, glorious!  Glorious!

‘“What’s to-day!” cried Scrooge, calling downward to a boy in Sunday clothes, who perhaps had loitered in to look about him.

‘“EH?” returned the boy, with all his might of wonder.

‘“What’s to-day, my fine fellow?” said Scrooge.

‘“To-day!” replied the boy.  ‘“Why, CHRISTMAS DAY.”

‘“It’s Christmas Day!” said Scrooge to himself.  ‘“I haven’t missed it.  The Spirits have done it all in one night.  They can do anything they like.  Of course they can.  Of course they can. Hallo, my fine fellow!”’ Continue reading →

Posted in Economy, MN Gordon | Tagged , , , , , | Leave a comment

The Beatings Will Continue

Posted on December 23, 2014 by MN Gordon

The annual company holiday party was held over the weekend at Clearman’s North Woods Inn.  As President and Founder, we were obligated to offer some anecdotes.  What follows is an excerpt of our impractical perambulations…

The year is fading fast.  The last fragments of 2014 are rapidly slipping by like the last grains of sand through an hourglass.  The fewer days there are left the quicker they seem to disappear.

Take a look around.  The days are short.  The nights are long…and it is especially dark before dawn.  Alas, once again, 2014 was not the year our humble publishing business moved from darkness into the light.

Every sale we made took an inordinate amount of time and energy to acquire.  For selling newsletters has been like selling ice cubes to Eskimos.  No one seems to want what we have…even when we try and give away the store for free.

Most enterprising fellows would have cut their losses long ago.  They would have folded up shop and gone into carpet cleaning or chiropractory, or, perhaps, become a magician at the local dinner theatre. Continue reading →

Posted in MN Gordon, Politics | Tagged , , , , | Leave a comment

Exactly When the Fed Will Raise Rates

Posted on December 19, 2014 by MN Gordon

December has been a wild month so far.  Markets have gone haywire.  The DOW dropped 890 points before running back up 710.  Oil prices have been slashed 26 percent to just $55 per barrel.  Gold has gotten kicked in the chin.

But it could be much, much more erratic.  Just ask Russian President Vladimir Putin. He’s got big problems.  For instance, the Russian ruble has depreciated 50 percent this year against the dollar.  What’s more, earlier this week, the Russian central bank had to jack its key interest rate up from 10.5 percent to 17 percent.

Could you imagine if the federal funds rate was at 17 percent?  Nearly every asset bubble would pop overnight.  Financial panic would follow and the economy would be flattened.

Certainly, economic prospects in the United States are much better than in Russia.  For one thing, the United States is not solely dependent on oil revenue.  The economy is much more robust and dynamic.

But that doesn’t mean the United States is immune to the consequences that come with being a poor custodian of one’s currency. Continue reading →

Posted in Inflation, MN Gordon | Tagged , , , , | Leave a comment