The Other Problem with Debt No One is Talking About

Nearly 7 years have elapsed since the official end of the Great Recession.  By now it’s painfully obvious the rising tide of economic recovery has failed to lift all boats.  In fact, many boats bottomed out on the rocks in early 2009 and have been taking on water ever since.

Last week, for instance, it was reported that U.S. credit card debt topped $714 billion in the third quarter of 2015.  That’s up $34 billion from the year before.  Shouldn’t the economic recovery allow consumers to pay down their debts?

Indeed, it should, if only the economic recovery was the result of real, economic growth.  To the contrary, the recovery has been faux growth driven by cheap Fed credit and financial engineering.  Mutual increases in prosperity haven’t occurred.

In particular, those outside the financial services business, and other bubble industries, like government lobbyists, have largely missed out on any increase in income or living standard.  Good paying professional jobs that vaporized during the downturn have been replaced with low paying service jobs.  Consumers have used credit card debt to pick up the slack. Continue reading

Posted in Government Debt, MN Gordon | Tagged , , , , | 14 Comments

Deficit Spending is Not the Answer

Central bankers and monetary adherents the world over are united in the common grouse that fiscal policy is lacking.  Grander programs of direct stimulation are needed, they grumble.  Monetary policy alone won’t cut the mustard, they gripe.

Hardly a week goes by where the monetary side of the house isn’t heaving grievances at the fiscal side of the house.  The government spenders aren’t doing their part to boost the GDP, proclaim the money printers.  Greater outlays and ‘structural reforms’ are needed to spur aggregate demand, they moan.

For example, last month, just prior to the G20 gala, the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) asserted that “Getting back to healthy and inclusive growth calls for urgent policy response, drawing on monetary, fiscal, and structural policies working together.”  The OECD report also stated that “The case for structural reforms, combined with supporting demand policies, remains strong to sustainably lift productivity and the job creation.” Continue reading

Posted in Inflation, MN Gordon | Tagged , , , , , , | Leave a comment

Why Janet Yellen is Toast

“The Phillips Curve is alive,” said Fed Chair Janet Yellen at Wednesday’s post FOMC meeting press conference.

We’ll offer some remarks on this in just a moment, including why Yellen is toast.  But first we must put her utterances into proper context.

This week, at a business meeting, we experienced the full veracity of Brandolini’s Law.  If you happen to be ignorant of Brandolini’s Law, we must apologize.  For we must forever end your bliss.

Brandolini’s Law, or the BS Asymmetry Principle, as formulated by Italian programmer Alberto Brandolini, says: “The amount of energy needed to refute BS is an order of magnitude bigger than to produce it.”

In other words, it takes 10-times the energy to debunk a falsehood than it takes to spew it.  Certainly, Brandolini is on to something.  In fact, as far as we can tell, there are countless applications of this law. Continue reading

Posted in Inflation, MN Gordon | Tagged , , , , | 2 Comments

No Free Lunches Be Damned

“There ain’t no such thing as a free lunch,” is one of the essential axioms of economics.  No doubt about it, there’s no getting around this simple truth.  Everything has a price.

For example, even if someone buys you lunch the lunch still isn’t free.  The opportunity cost, your time to eat the lunch when you could’ve been doing something else, has a price.  In addition, even if you don’t consider your time a cost, there’s no denying the fact that someone paid for the lunch.  Hence, it wasn’t free.

Nonetheless, despite this simple fact, politicians promise free lunches for the many at the expense of the few.  This offense is especially on display during a presidential primary election.  Free college.  Free drugs.  Free housing.  Free food.

You name it, there’s hardly a lunch out there this season’s crop of presidential candidates haven’t already laid claim to.  This is what they must do to get elected.  This is how presidential politics works in a democracy.

We don’t like it.  We don’t agree with it.  But what we think really doesn’t matter.  The facts are lucidly clear. Continue reading

Posted in MN Gordon, Politics | Tagged , , , , | 7 Comments