Getting to a Special State of Ugly

There are certain phrases – like “trust me” or “I got this” – that should immediately provoke one’s suspicion.  When your slippery contractor tells you, “trust me, your kitchen renovation will be done before Christmas,” you should be wary.  There’s no way it’ll be done until late spring.

Or when your incompetent client says, “I won’t be needing your services at this time, I got this.”  You should expect a panicked phone call at 5pm on Friday.  “This is way more than I can handle,” your client will say, “take care of it.”

On Monday, when the sky was falling, and there was much weeping and gnashing of teeth, the Chinese yuan weakened to above 7 per dollar for the first time in over a decade.  This prompted U.S. Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin to waft out a suspicious phrase of his own.  He called China a “currency manipulator.”

Mnuchin’s logic, as far as we can tell, is that China manipulated their currency because their central bank didn’t adequately intervene in foreign exchange markets to prop up the yuan.  Conversely, direct intervention into markets, to maintain a centrally planned price that’s acceptable to Mnuchin, is not currency manipulation.  Go figure! Continue reading

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Do You Hear a Bell Ringing?

The sun shines brightest across the North American continent as we enter summer’s dog days.  Cold sweet lemonade is the refreshment of choice at ballparks and swimming holes alike.  Many people drink it after cutting the grass, or whenever else a respite from the heat and some thirst quenching satisfaction is needed.

The economy, after 10 years of growth, appears to be heading for a respite too.  Second quarter earnings, currently being reported by S&P 500 companies, have been a mixed bag thus far.  But in sectors that actually make stuff, like materials and industrials, earnings are suffering double digit declines.

From a practical standpoint, earnings are declining in these sectors because manufacturing is contracting.  For example, this week it was reported that the Chicago Purchase Mangers’ Index (PMI) collapsed in July to 44.4.  That’s the second weakest Chicago PMI reading since the Great Financial Crisis. Continue reading

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Realizing the Full Implications of the Forthcoming Catastrophe

“Facilis descensus Averno.” – Virgil

Delivering Tomorrow’s Curses

Roman poet Virgil penned these words in his epic, The Aeneid, roughly a generation before the birth of Jesus of Nazareth.  They can be loosely translated to, “the descent to hell is easy.”  Those who’ve traversed this passage can attest to the veracity of this axiom.

Though not apparent in the milieu of Virgil’s poem, for our purposes today, we’ll extend its application to the insidious progression of currency debasement.  What short utterance more aptly characterizes the steady degradation, as currently practiced by today’s church of state?

Yesterday [Thursday], for example, the House acted with untroubled ease to further America’s descent to hell.  With little resistance, federal spending was increased and the debt ceiling was suspended for two years.  Having delivered tomorrow’s curses, the nation’s Representatives can skip town without missing a moment of summer recess. Continue reading

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Tending Towards Maximum Perversity

According to Finagle’s corollary to Murphy’s law, “Anything that can go wrong, will—at the worst possible moment.”  Taken a degree further, per O’Toole’s corollary of Finagle’s law, and the second law of thermodynamics, “The perversity of the Universe tends towards a maximum.”

No doubt, the perverse effect of central planning on the economy is tending towards a maximum.  This tendency can be traced back well over a century, with the advent of the Fed and the federal income tax in 1913.  Our purpose today, however, is to look back a mere decade.  This offers an adequate sampling of O’Toole’s corollary of Finagle’s law in action.

For example, on June 1, 2009, General Motors filed for Chapter 11 bankruptcy protection; the fourth largest bankruptcy in U.S. history.  Of course, GM didn’t vanish from the face of the earth.  Instead, Washington took 60 percent ownership and nationalized the company with a $50 billion taxpayer bailout.  President Obama remarked at the time:

“We are acting as reluctant shareholders because that is the only way to help GM succeed.” Continue reading

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