Powell Holds the Line

The high stakes standoff between Fed Chair Jerome Powell and President Donald Trump is exhilarating.

Trump wants Powell to cut interest rates so the U.S. government can save money on its debt financing costs. Powell wants to wait and see how tariff policies impact consumer prices before cutting – or raising – rates.

Between July and September, the U.S. Treasury intends to borrow over $1 trillion in privately-held net marketable debt. Between October and December, the Treasury plans to borrow another $590 billion. Lower interest rates would certainly help Uncle Sam finance all this new debt. But it may also bring unpleasant consequences.

Lower interest rates, for example, encourage more borrowing. With a national debt of $37 trillion, which is projected to skyrocket to $60 trillion or more well before the middle of the century, borrowing more money is the last thing the U.S. government should be doing.

If Congress really cared about the future of America, and the younger citizens whose futures are being crippled by all this debt, it would balance the budget or even run a surplus to pay down the debt. Instead, Congress is stepping on the gas as it speeds towards the fiscal cliff. Continue reading

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Stargate’s AI Dreams Meet Reality

The major stock market indexes continue their push to new all-time highs. Year to date the S&P 500 is up 8.43 percent. The NASDAQ is up 9.22 percent over this time.

The tariff panic of early April has turned out to have been a delightful buying opportunity. Valuation metrics like the CAPE ratio and the Buffett Indicator are at the extreme of their extremes. No one seems to care.

Meme stocks are once again all the rage. On June 25, shares of Opendoor Technologies Inc. were trading for just $0.51. On July 21, they spiked to an interim high of $4.97 – an increase of 874 percent. Then they did an abrupt faceplant. At market close on July 24, these same shares were at $2.42.

Nothing has changed to Opendoor’s underlying online – iBuyer – real estate business over the last month that justifies the wild swings. But like GameStop and AMC Entertainment from several years ago, Opendoor has become a “meme stonk.” An object of speculative frenzy. Continue reading

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Capitalism: The Enemy of Poverty

Today we return with another dispatch from Joel Bowman, founder and author of Notes from the End of the World.

When Mr. Bowman last updated us on President Javier Milei’s experiment with libertarianism in Argentina, he detailed a fascinating tale of a disappearing government. Cutting debt and deficits, reducing taxes, and taking a chainsaw to the administrative state have quickly given way to greater individual freedom and liberty. But that’s not all…

In his article, Capitalism: The Enemy of Poverty, Bowman reveals some important findings. Not only is Milei’s experiment having a positive impact on personal freedom, it’s having a positive impact on economic prosperity. The two are proving to be mutual.

After giving it a read, if you haven’t already done so, please head over to Bowman’s website and subscribe to his newsletter. This will ensure you receive all his latest findings as they’re reported in real time. Continue reading

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Fire the Fed, Raise Tariffs, and Hope for the Best

President Donald Trump and Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent want lower interest rates so they can lower the financing costs of America’s massive debt. The net interest on the debt for fiscal year 2025 is on track to hit $1 trillion.

Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell has resisted daily lambasting from Trump to cut rates. Powell wants to first wait and see how Trump’s tariff policies impact consumer price inflation. Moreover, with unemployment moderately low, the CPI rising at an annual rate of 2.7 percent, and the stock market at all-time highs there is no compelling reason to cut rates.

Nonetheless, Trump’s had enough of Powell’s disobedience. This week Bessent revealed that active steps are being taken to fire Powell before his term runs out next year. He will be replaced with someone who will comply with Trump’s rate cut demands.

Of course, a sensible way to lower interest rates would be to eliminate deficit spending. With a balanced budget, the Treasury would no longer have to issue new debt. It could merely finance the existing debt. Under this scenario the pool of Treasuries would no longer be expanding. Continue reading

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