A Telling Sign of Things to Come

Posted on October 11, 2011 by MN Gordon

The Labor Department reported last Friday that 103,000 jobs were added in September.  Considering the lethargic state of the economy, this number could have been much worse.  Nonetheless, a quick scratch below the surface reveals the headline jobs number wasn’t quite what it first appeared.

In particular, the jobs number included the return of 45,000 communications workers that had been on strike.  If you exclude them from the jobs report, employment increased by a measly 58,000.  Still, even the official 103,000 jobs count was not enough to lower the unemployment rate from 9.1 percent.  There were also several other substandard statistics buried below the headlines in the September labor report.

For example, the average duration of unemployment marked a record high of 40.5 weeks.  In addition, close to 45 percent of the 14 million unemployed had been out of work for greater than six months – up from 42.9 percent in August.  Yet even worse, when including people who want to work, but have given up looking for a job, and people who work part time, but want to work full time, the unemployment rate increased to 16.5 percent. Continue reading →

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The Way Out of Our Economic Mess

Posted on October 7, 2011 by MN Gordon

Something big is going on.  You can just feel it.  Unfortunately, the world’s two biggest clowns are on the case.

On Monday, in between Wall Street’s 33 percent markdown of American Airlines’ stock, President Obama took a moment to markdown the stock of the American people.  “I don’t think [American’s are] better off than they were four years ago,” said the President.

Then, on Tuesday, while the credit market was marking 10-Year Treasury yields down to 1.72 percent, Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke, in a speech to Congress, marked down the effectiveness of monetary policy.  “Monetary policy can be a powerful tool, but it is not a panacea for the problems currently faced by the U.S. economy,” said Bernanke.

No doubt, the domineering President and the interventionist Fed are not talking down their book just for the goodness of candid discourse.  They didn’t attain their political power and influence by walking and talking perfectly upright.  They’re talking down their book because, by doing so, they expect to grow support for their next grand scheme to save us from ourselves.

Of course, you know what that means.  It means spending borrowed money and debauching the currency in unison.  It is the only play they know. Continue reading →

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Lurching Back into the Vicious Cycle of Recession

Posted on October 4, 2011 by MN Gordon

Last Friday the Commerce Department announced that private sector wages and government benefits both fell in August.  The combination of these two undesirable data points resulted in the first monthly decline in overall personal income since October 2009. What this means is that by and large people didn’t gain financial ground in August; they lost it.

Also on Friday, Economic Cycle Research Institute (ECRI), the leading authority on business cycles, reported that their “most reliable forward-looking indicators are now collectively behaving as they did on the cusp of full-blown recessions, not ‘soft landings.”’ ECRI could be wrong, of course.  However, they have correctly predicted the last three recessions without any false alarms in between.  Here are several grim notes from ECRI on what to expect…

“A new recession isn’t simply a statistical event.  It’s a vicious cycle that, once started, must run its course.  Under certain circumstances, a drop in sales, for instance, lowers production, which results in declining employment and income, which in turn weakens sales further, all the while spreading like wildfire from industry to industry, region to region, and indicator to indicator.  That’s what a recession is all about. Continue reading →

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China’s Return to Normal

Posted on September 30, 2011 by MN Gordon

The stock market watches Europe with intent hesitation.  Up one day.  Down the next.  One day Europe’s on the verge of financial meltdown and stocks are in the cellar.  The next day rumors of a big bailout have markets floating above the clouds.

Clearly, the market hasn’t got a clue what to make of it…and neither do we.  So rather than trying to solve the whole ball of wax, today we’ll scratch for perspective…

When it comes down to it pondering the “if” and “when” of a Greek default is a great big distraction.  No doubt, it feels like markets could crash at any moment.  But whether they crash tomorrow or next year really doesn’t change the simple fact that the economy’s on the ropes and everyone knows it.  Moreover, there ain’t a darn thing anyone can do about it.

On Tuesday, for example, the Conference Board reported that consumer confidence in September remained near a two year low at 45.2.  We also learned on Tuesday that, according to the Case-Shiller index, property values fell 4.1 percent over the 12 months ending in July 2011.  On Wednesday, Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke said that long term unemployment is a national crisis.  Then, yesterday, we learned the economy grew at an annual rate of less than 1 percent during the first six months of the year. Continue reading →

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