Musical Chairs Investing

Posted on September 2, 2014 by MN Gordon

Markets were closed yesterday in observance of Labor Day.  But here at the Economic Prism we labored on.  There’s always something to contemplate.  Where to begin?

One place, obviously, is this crazy stock market.  Day after day, week after week, month after month, year after year…the broad barometer of man’s hopes and dreams keeps going up.  Apparently, August was the S&P 500’s best month since February.

“The S&P 500 gained 3.8 percent for the month,” reported MarketWatch, “representing the bench mark’s best August performance since 2000.  The S&P also achieved its largest monthly percentage jump since February, when it rose 4.3 percent.”

Something remarkable is going on here, for sure.  After bottoming out at 666 on March 6, 2009, the S&P 500 is up over 300 percent.  Simply for buying and holding an index of the stock market’s largest 500 companies, investors have tripled their money.

How much longer will this go on?  No one really knows.  That it has gone on this long is bewildering.  Unfortunately, the next five years will not likely be as prosperous as the last five has been for stock market investors. Continue reading →

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Morons At Large

Posted on August 29, 2014 by MN Gordon

Up here, near the face of Tahquitz Peak, the summer twilight lingers a little longer.  The evening sunshine bends through the tall shady pines and sweet smelling cedars, basking on Idyllwild…the splendor mile high Southern California mountain village.  We breathe deeply and exhale gradually.  Time slows to the soft rhythm of Strawberry Creek as it meanders through town.

The kids return to school next week.  Back to crowded classrooms and common core curriculum.  What could possibly be worse?  But, at the moment, we’re not ready for them to close the door on summer just yet.

You’re only a kid once.  Why not stretch the summer break out to the last moment possible?  Plus, the outdoor classroom on Ernie Maxwell Scenic Trail provides far more instruction than a classroom ever could.  Time, gravity, hydrology, ecology, limitations, consequences…you name it, it’s all right here.

Obviously, there are certain rote learning fundamentals that are best suited to the classroom.  Like reading, writing, and arithmetic.  There are no shortcuts to the practice and repetition required to master these skills. Continue reading →

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What a Remarkable Time to be Alive

Posted on August 26, 2014 by MN Gordon

Naturally, we’re disappointed.  We’d hoped top Fed head Janet Yellen would say something significant from the idyllic setting of Jackson Holy, Wyoming.  Namely, we tuned in for a hint of when the federal funds rate, which has been pressed firmly to zero for nearly six years, would be increased.

But, alas, we didn’t hear anything noteworthy.  Rather, we heard a lot of hot air.  What follows is a selection of several of Yellen’s choice excerpts.

“At the FOMC’s most recent meeting, the Committee judged, based on a range of labor market indicators, that ‘labor market conditions improved.’  […]  Nevertheless, the Committee judged that underutilization of labor resources still remains significant.

“Given this assessment and the Committee’s expectation that inflation will gradually move up toward its longer-run objective, the Committee reaffirmed its view ‘that it likely will be appropriate to maintain the current target range for the federal funds rate for a considerable time after our current asset purchase program ends, especially if projected inflation continues to run below the Committee’s 2 percent longer-run goal, and provided that longer-term inflation expectations remain well anchored.’ Continue reading →

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Fire and Brimstone

Posted on August 22, 2014 by MN Gordon

Here’s a demoralizing fact.  Your paycheck has been shrinking for 5 years.  We wish we were making this up…but we’re not…

According to MarketWatch, “Since the Great Recession ended five years ago, the amount of money Americans earn each hour after adjusting for inflation has actually fallen.  And that largely explains why the U.S. economy is growing just 60 percent as fast as it normally does.

“Hourly wages have risen about 10 percent overall since June 2009, to $24.45 an hour.  But over the same span they’ve slipped 0.3 percent in “real” or inflation-adjusted terms.  That means most families are just treading water.”

This, in a nutshell, explains the frustrations the average American worker is faced with these days.  They’re working harder than ever.  But they are earning less.

It feels like running in ankle deep sand down a hot dry beach that never ends.  Terrible amounts of time and energy are traded for a diminishing return. Continue reading →

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