Get Paid by Politicians

Get Paid by Politicians“I’m out here studying what appears to be an epidemic of arrested development in the American Dream,” wrote Hunter S. Thompson from San Francisco to a New York Editor in the mid-1960s.

Fifty years later the effects of this epidemic have spread their ails across the entire American landscape.  You can hardly peer about without evidence of the rampant degeneration – be it lack of manners or people too large for their sweat pants – lacerating your eyeballs.

There’s not much you can do to stop it.  But you don’t have to be part of it.  What’s more, there are ways you can make the best of it.

Today’s insights are for the patient and shrewd individual.  If you are one among these few and far between fellows you’ll delight – and prosper – from what follows.  And even if you can’t hold on to a buck, for fear it’ll burn your fingers, you may somehow find it within yourself to exploit this clever and elegant opportunity.

You only live once.  Why not dare to do something that’s both fun and profitable…and a little subversive? Continue reading

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Pinching the Losers in Congress

Pinching the Losers in CongressFinancial markets are remarkably confounding.  If you’ve ever speculated on stock price movements, you know what we mean.  Predicting where the market will go is hard enough.  But knowing exactly when…that’s nearly impossible.

Looking back, assigning causation, and projecting forward, doesn’t do the trick.  Neither does charting out wave patterns and drawing trend lines.  For eventually trend lines are broken.  Then what?

The point is, stocks go up and then they go down.  So, too, they go down and then they go up.  But sometimes times they go down and then they go down some more.  For what’s absolutely the right time to buy at one time is spectacularly wrong at another.  And what’s spectacularly the wrong time to buy at one time is absolutely right at another.

Take Southwest Airlines, for instance.  It was last year’s top performing S&P 500 stock…returning 124.63 percent.  This year, however, as of May 14, it was down 0.47 percent.

Make of it what you will.  But, by shrewd acumen alone, we don’t think there were many who purchased Southwest Airlines on January 1 and sold on December 31, 2014.  That would involve good luck, in addition to great guesswork. Continue reading

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Bear Witness to the Madness

Second-rate economic data is first-rate news for Wall Street these days.  We don’t quite comprehend the logic.  But the popular reasoning goes something like this…

Good economic data is bad for stocks.  For it means the Fed will begin increasing rates sooner rather than later.  Higher rates are bad for the stock market because of increased borrowing costs.

Nonetheless, bad economic data is also bad for stocks.  For it means the economy could be slowing into recession.  Declining corporate earnings and contracting growth should push stock prices down.

The sweet spot, however, is in the middling.  Moderate growth means corporate earnings should hold.  It also means the Fed will delay raising rates…which furthers Wall Street’s glee.

This is simply absurd, we know.  But just because it is absurd doesn’t mean we should deny it.  We may not understand it, we may not agree with it.  Yet it is happening all the same.  Who are we to resist it? Continue reading

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Sell the Rally

Do you have the feeling something just ain’t right?  If so, we suggest trusting your gut on this one.  The financial system’s running head long for a bleak implosion…followed by years of economic hardship.

Certainly, this is only our opinion.  One we’ve advanced over years of self-edification.  But what do we know?  We could be wrong…again.

We thought the DOW had peaked at about 13,000 and that the declining labor participation rate was indicative of a weakening economy…not a strengthening one.  Thus far these notions haven’t played out as we’d anticipated.  Perhaps we’ve been missing something all along.

Somehow, we can’t get past the fact that the economy’s flat yet stocks have gone vertical.  Nor can we comprehend the fiscal and monetary gimmicks that have been issued to make this happen.  TARP, CPFF, MMIFF, TALF, QE, QE2, QE3, ZIRP, and others.

These phony money mechanisms have propped up asset prices and splattered the financial landscape with unrendered pig lard. Continue reading

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