Where’s the Beef?

The year was 1984. The fast-food landscape was dominated by two giants: McDonald’s and Burger King. But a third player, Wendy’s, was making its mark with a new advertising campaign. This would not only boost its sales but also embed a simple, three-word phrase into the American lexicon:

“Where’s the beef?”

The campaign, created by the ad agency Dancer Fitzgerald Sample, centered on three elderly women. These old ladies were discerning fast-food critics. The star of the commercial was the feisty, bespectacled Clara Peller.

In the now-classic commercial, the women are presented with a giant, pillowy bun from a fictional competitor. They ooh and aah over the size of the bun, but then, Clara, with her gravelly, no-nonsense voice, peers under the lid and exclaims in exasperation, “Where’s the beef?”

Obviously, the question was aimed at Wendy’s competitors. It suggested their burgers were all fluff and no substance. Wendy’s, in contrast, boasted of its larger, square patties that hung over the bun, proving they had plenty of beef. Continue reading

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On Black Swans and White Lies

“If you hear a ‘prominent’ economist using the word ‘equilibrium,’ or ‘normal distribution,’ do not argue with him; just ignore him, or try to put a rat down his shirt.”

– Nassim Taleb, The Black Swan

Facing the Unexpected

There was an old European belief that persisted for centuries. People were convinced that all swans were white. Their reasoning was founded in logic and supported by empirical evidence.

Every single swan they’d ever seen was white. It was a universal truth. A rock-solid assumption based on all the available evidence.

But then, in the late 17th century, a Dutch explorer found black swans in Australia. The one-time truth that all swans were white was instantly shattered. The existence of black swans showed how fragile knowledge and assumptions can be when faced with the unexpected.

Nearly 20 years ago, in his book The Black Swan, author and options trader Nassim Taleb described a Black Swan as an event that comes as a complete and utter shock. Something that nobody saw coming, which has a massive, widespread impact. What’s more, after it happens, we look back and convince ourselves that it was totally predictable all along. Continue reading

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The Unvirtuous Cycle of Rate Cuts

Economic Prism Articles | Insights on Gold, Stocks, Inflation & FOMCPresident Trump wants rate cuts. Stock market investors do too. As do home buyers.

Their reasons are slightly different. But they all generally believe rate cuts to be the path to greater riches and glory.

Trump wants cheaper credit for several reasons. First, he wants cheaper credit so the Treasury can better finance the U.S. government’s massive $37.5 trillion pile of debt.

The 2025 fiscal year ends September 30. Through August, the federal government has run a budget deficit of $1.97 trillion. About half of this – $933 billion – was merely to cover the interest on the debt.

If interest rates were to drop by a percentage point or two the annual debt interest could fall by several hundred billion. This may buy a little time for the U.S. government’s fiscal reckoning. But it really wouldn’t change anything.

The U.S. government is on target to run a budget deficit of $2.2 trillion for FY 2025. Lower interest rates, and thus a lower net interest payment, would only reduce the deficit to around $2 trillion – a difference of just over a half percent of the total $37.5 trillion of outstanding debt. In other words, it would do exactly diddly-squat for the nation’s finances. Continue reading

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Invasive Species

The growth of government from day to day is often subtle. A new law here. Another regulation there. The imposition of an added fee. All with the best of intentions.

But over a decade – or a century – like the introduction of an invasive specie to an unsuspecting habitat, the small additions of government take over the entire landscape. The citizenry is left to contend with – and pay for – the wreckage of overgrown government.

Adding to government, however, is much simpler than subtracting from it. In fact, it is a rare day when a government takes it upon itself to shrink its scope and reach. Yet this is exactly what is happening in Argentina.

Joel Bowman, founder and author of Notes from the End of the World, has been tracking the progress of what he calls the Greatest Political Experiment of Our Age. Today we check-in with Mr. Bowman from his interim perch in Villa la Angostura, for his exclusive boots on the ground perspective.

From this remote locale, Bowman encounters Invasive Species and delivers the latest findings of Javier Milei’s chainsaw campaign to eradicate them from the administrative state. The results, thus far, are proving to be mutually beneficial to both personal freedom and economic prosperity. Continue reading

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