Seizing the Orinoco

Last weekend’s capture and extraction of Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro was both fun and exciting. Disregarding national sovereignty and international law feels good when the outcome is favorable.

Doing something reckless, like train surfing or drunk driving, and getting away with it teaches a dangerous lesson. Namely, that you’re invincible and can take things up another notch – or two.

Does might make right?

The time to answer this question has come and gone. Wrong or right. What’s done is done. Once a cucumber has become a pickle it can never be a cucumber again. There’s no going back.

Perhaps Maduro, a corrupt and illegitimate dictator with a long list of abuses, had it coming. Handcuffs appear fitting. Certainly, opinions abound. Ours is of little concern.

What we’re interested in better understanding is, what’s the meaning of it all? The world appears to be significantly different than when the clock struck midnight on January 1, 2026. Continue reading

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Outlook 2026: Chaos and Control

“Adde parvum parvo magnus acervus erit.”

–Ovid

Four Dominant Themes for 2026

Do you like the world around you? Are you eager to take another trip around the sun?

Like it or not. Eager or not. The New Year is here…

We intend to make the best of it. We suppose you do too.

Where to begin?

Silver delivered some excitement to close out the year. After skyrocketing past $80 per ounce, the grey metal (Ag) has been on a volatile ride between liquidity squeezes and midnight margin calls.

Behind the scenes, naked shorting – the fraudulent move where big banks sell silver they haven’t even borrowed – pushed the financial system to the breaking point. When prices spiked, these paper bets got torched. To maintain solvency, it is suspected the banks took to the overnight repo market for instant cash to cover their short positions.

This may have provided a temporary solution. But the Federal Reserve, via the overnight repo market, cannot print silver. It can merely extend credit. We believe the market disorder that hit the day after Christmas will return in the New Year. And it’s only a matter of time before one of the big banks will be caught swimming with its pants down. Continue reading

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The Most Freedom in the World

The expert class is opposed to freedom. They devise theories, supposedly backed by academic rigor, to promote greater state control and intervention over individuals. When something challenges their rhetoric, they pile on the propaganda and fear. Yet they are consistently wrong.

While the expert class was busy clutching their pearls and predicting total collapse, something strange happened at the edge of the world. Freedom and liberty improved people’s lives. The results, by all measures, are extraordinary.

Today we return with another guest article from our friend Joel Bowman and his Note From the End of the World. If you recall, two years ago, Javier Milei stepped onto the stage in Argentina with a chainsaw and the promise of smaller government and greater freedoms. The ivory tower elites shrieked about social chaos and destruction. They warned that a libertarian experiment would only bring suffering to the masses.

Fast forward to Christmas 2025, and a preponderance of evidence has piled up in support of Milei’s cause. From crushing triple-digit inflation to igniting the fastest growth in the Western Hemisphere, the data tells a story the mainstream media refuses to touch. Continue reading

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Why Market Fundamentals Always Win in the End

The U.S. stock market, as measured by the S&P 500, is closing out another solid year. With just a few trading days left in 2025, it’s up over 17 percent. Once again, buy and hold index fund investors have been rewarded for their mindless rigor.

Good for them. A bull market is no time for sound thinking and contemplating risk. Blindly riding the index higher is both fun and easy. The results are gratifying.

Nonetheless, we believe now is precisely the time to consider risk and a prudent portfolio allocation. It is highly likely 2026 will be less pleasant for S&P 500 index investors who bet the farm on its perpetual buoyancy.

The uncomfortably fact is we’re currently staring at a stock market that is, by almost every historical metric, priced for perfection. In our experience, perfection is a very high bar to clear.

Fundamentals may be boring. They may seem irrelevant and outdated after such an extensive bull market run. But if you ignore them, you’re doing so at great peril. Continue reading

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