Why China Will Suffer a Hard Landing

Global economies are struggling.  Europe’s economy is stalling out.  The Japanese economy’s shrinking at an annualized rate of 7.1 percent.  But we won’t dwell on Europe or Japan at the moment.  For today we set our sights on a Chinese bull’s eye; namely, China’s miracle engine of growth that appears to finally be slowing down.

Naturally, when an economy slows many problems that had been covered up by new growth are exposed.  For example, after years and years of stimulating the Chinese economy with borrowed money, the mistakes and distortions have literally piled up as far as the eye can see.  There’s a gross overcapacity of property.

“According to Chinese data, cities have built enough for 97 million new city residents, but over the past 5 years, only 35 million people have moved into these cities, a gap of 62 million people.  These are the potential ghost cities.”

Typically a ghost city appears following a long period of economic prosperity.  Overtime the fundamentals that supported the prosperity change.  Population flight – like in Detroit where the population peaked out at 1.8 million in 1950 is now at just 688,000 – follows. Continue reading

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Consumers Don’t Stand a Chance

Most economists don’t do any favors for the esteem of their trade.  They take ideas a third grader would know are idiotic and champion them with bluster and bravado.  Hardly a day goes by where some economist doesn’t prove he’s a moron.

Take cash for clunkers.  Everyone, with the exception of brain dead economists, knows that giving people money to scrap perfectly good vehicles is a value subtracting enterprise.  Yet economists cheer on the outward demand for new cars it stimulates…and the boost to GDP.

But if this were really the road to riches, why not give everyone cash to buy a new car?  Automaker factories would be buzzing.  So, too, why not give everyone money to buy a house?  Homebuilder payrolls would swell.  This would work perfectly well…if we were living in fantasy land.

Another popular delusion of modern day economic thought is that wealth is created by borrowing money and spending it…as opposed to saving money and investing it.  Simple logic proves this thinking is false.  Yet economists pursue it anyway. Continue reading

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The Solution to Deflation

The stock market laid another egg yesterday.  We won’t dwell on it much.  Only enough to make the observation that change is in the air.  You can see it.  Feel it.  And even smell it.  Nonetheless, being prepared for it – both for profits and protection – is the real challenge.  Here’s what we mean…

The United States dollar has strengthened against other currencies over recent months.  The dollar index – a measure of the U.S. dollar relative to a basket of foreign currencies – was around 80 for the first half of the year.  But since July it has run up significantly.

Currently, the dollar index is around 86.  That means the dollar has increased in value by 7.5 percent on the foreign exchange market over the last three months.  What are the consequences of a stronger dollar?

Naturally, there are both advantages and disadvantages to a stronger dollar…depending on how you look at it.  A more valuable dollar is a good thing for the typical saver and consumer alike.  In general, it means imported goods become cheaper. Continue reading

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Buyer’s Remorse

The stock market was clobbered on Tuesday.  The DOW sold off 272 points.  What did it mean?  Was it an indicator the market is finally rolling over, as we’ve anticipated for some time?  Or was it just another head fake on the way to new highs?

On Wednesday we thought we had our answer.  The DOW ran back up 274 points…recovering all of the prior day’s losses, plus two points.  It was the market’s best day of the year.  Wall Street was euphoric.

Even gold stocks rose.  Junior mining stocks, as measured by the Junior Gold Miners ETF (GDXJ), jumped up 9.61 percent.  Fixed income investors also joined in on the fun.  Yields on the 10 year treasury note fell to just 2.32 percent, nearly to their 52 week low of 2.30 percent.

What was the cause for the elation?  Is GDP soaring?  Are incomes finally rising?  Is Putin packing up Russian troops and vacating Ukraine?  Was a vaccine for Ebola discovered?

Nope.  It was nothing of the sort.  What produced the buying frenzy was something we call worshiping utterances. Continue reading

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