Expansions and contractions in global trade have played out over long secular trends for thousands of years. The Silk Road, for example, was established by the Han Dynasty of China in 130 BC, and allowed for continuous trade between east and west for nearly 1,600 years. In addition to economic trade, the Silk Road was also a conduit for culture and knowledge among its network of civilizations.
However, this trade route eventually came to an end. When the Byzantine Empire fell to the Turks in 1453 AD, the Ottoman Empire closed the Silk Road and cut all ties with the west. Geopolitical trends turned inward towards isolation.
In more modern times, global trade has been conducted by shipping cargo across the international waters of the high seas. Over the last 200 years trade cycles have often expanded for such lengthy periods that several generations will come and go while only knowing this half of the trend. During these episodes people come to believe increased global trade is a linear phenomenon. Continue reading







