Meltdown in the Alps

Aggressive tariff threats. Punishing historic allies. Disregarding Danish sovereignty. Perhaps in President Trump’s mind the ends justify the means.

This week, Trump’s high stakes push to acquire Greenland quickly escalated into a geopolitical hubbub. On Tuesday, Greenland’s Prime Minister Jens-Frederik Nielsen told authorities to start preparing for a possible military invasion.

Trump’s motivation includes security and control of the G-I-UK Gap (the northern Atlantic gap between Greenland, Iceland and the United Kingdom) and ownership of vast amounts of rare earth elements. These ambitions all fit perfectly within the framework of the Donroe Doctrine and the objective of asserting undisputed American supremacy throughout the Western Hemisphere.

Denmark, however, remains stubbornly resistant to these advances. So far, the big chill emanating from these frigid northern waters is being felt directly in the fluctuating value of the U.S. dollar.

Typically, when the world gets nervous, the dollar acts like a comfortable weighted blanket that everyone hides under for safety. But this time, that blanket has holes in it as investors grow tired of the extreme diplomatic posturing. Continue reading

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Countdown to May Madness

“Tis in vain therefore to go about effectually to reduce the price of Interest by a Law; and you may as rationally hope to set a fixt Rate upon the Hire of Houses, or Ships, as of Money.”

– John Locke, 1691

The Subpoena Strategy

May 2026 cannot come soon enough for Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell. That’s when his term is up. He can hang around as a Fed governor until 2028. Though, in the past, most Fed chairs have stepped down when their term is over.

Perhaps he will get picked up by one of the big banks and get paid big bucks. Or maybe he’ll write a book and go on a speaking tour and collect big fees. Or, if he’s smart, he’ll go fishing, indefinitely. Who knows?

In the meantime, he’s got President Trump and the Department of Justice (DOJ) all over his backside. This past Friday, as you likely know, the DOJ served the Federal Reserve with grand-jury subpoenas.

On Sunday night, Powell did something central bankers almost never do. He got in front of a camera and went on the offensive. Continue reading

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Seizing the Orinoco

Last weekend’s capture and extraction of Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro was both fun and exciting. Disregarding national sovereignty and international law feels good when the outcome is favorable.

Doing something reckless, like train surfing or drunk driving, and getting away with it teaches a dangerous lesson. Namely, that you’re invincible and can take things up another notch – or two.

Does might make right?

The time to answer this question has come and gone. Wrong or right. What’s done is done. Once a cucumber has become a pickle it can never be a cucumber again. There’s no going back.

Perhaps Maduro, a corrupt and illegitimate dictator with a long list of abuses, had it coming. Handcuffs appear fitting. Certainly, opinions abound. Ours is of little concern.

What we’re interested in better understanding is, what’s the meaning of it all? The world appears to be significantly different than when the clock struck midnight on January 1, 2026. Continue reading

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Outlook 2026: Chaos and Control

“Adde parvum parvo magnus acervus erit.”

–Ovid

Four Dominant Themes for 2026

Do you like the world around you? Are you eager to take another trip around the sun?

Like it or not. Eager or not. The New Year is here…

We intend to make the best of it. We suppose you do too.

Where to begin?

Silver delivered some excitement to close out the year. After skyrocketing past $80 per ounce, the grey metal (Ag) has been on a volatile ride between liquidity squeezes and midnight margin calls.

Behind the scenes, naked shorting – the fraudulent move where big banks sell silver they haven’t even borrowed – pushed the financial system to the breaking point. When prices spiked, these paper bets got torched. To maintain solvency, it is suspected the banks took to the overnight repo market for instant cash to cover their short positions.

This may have provided a temporary solution. But the Federal Reserve, via the overnight repo market, cannot print silver. It can merely extend credit. We believe the market disorder that hit the day after Christmas will return in the New Year. And it’s only a matter of time before one of the big banks will be caught swimming with its pants down. Continue reading

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