How The Trade War Ends

The quote “When goods don’t cross borders, soldiers will,” is frequently attributed to 19th century writer and free market economist Frederic Bastiat. While these specific words, strung together with this specific syntax, cannot be found in Bastiat published catalogue, their sentiments are of the type he would have likely endorsed.

The point is that free trade not only increases the wealth of different societies, but it may also be essential for peaceful relations. The breakdown of free trade has often coincided with wars. These wars start as currency and trade wars and then escalate into shooting wars. This is something to be mindful of as President-elect Trump amps up forthcoming import tariffs.

Global trade has expanded without interruption for so long that only senior citizens remember anything different. But global trade hasn’t always expanded. In fact, there have been long episodes of global trade contractions that have played out over long secular trends for thousands of years. Continue reading

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The Road to America’s Golden Age

Hey! Rub-a-dub-dub. Trump won!

Make a toast or say a prayer. It all depends on your political and spiritual preferences. There are times to kiss the bottle. So, too, there are times to kneel in church. Perhaps now is the time for both.

“This will truly be the golden age of America,” remarked Trump.

We wish the President-elect the best in this undertaking. There’s certainly a lot of work that needs to be done to restore America’s luster. This mainly involves cleaning up a huge pile of wreckage from the past.

There’s the real possibility that the ultimate financial reckoning, one resulting from over 110 years of expedient and reckless decisions, will happen on Trump’s watch. Maybe that’s why the Democrat party’s dealmakers installed Harris and Walz – two obvious losers – to headline the party ticket.

There needs to be a scapegoat when everything goes up in smoke. Someone the media elites can point to and say, ‘it’s all his fault.’ Trump, without question, makes the perfect fall guy. Continue reading

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Inflation and Chaos

The presidential election is less than one week away. Will Trump be the victor or will Harris?

The mainstream media is calling it a tossup. But from what we can tell, Trump appears to have the edge. At least, that’s what Wall Street is signaling.

Of course, apart from death and taxes, there are no guarantees in life. This is especially true when it comes to presidential elections. Anything can happen on election night. Ballot stuffing, fraud, hanging chads. You name it.

What will it be this time that throws the election results into question? Moreover, will voters accept the determined outcome? Or will discontented supporters of the losing side take to the streets and inflict total chaos?

What about stocks? Has Wall Street already priced in a Trump win? If so, and if Trump wins, will share prices run up further in celebration or will they drop in a “buy the rumor, sell the news” shakeout?

What will happen if Harris pulls out the victory? Will stocks crash? If so, is this a strategic buying opportunity? Continue reading

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Dumb Reasons Why More QE Is Coming

Debt, deficits, and debt interest payments have crippled America’s finances in a way that only a government of corrupt clowns could have made possible. Decades of overspending are coming home to roost. We all get to live with the consequences.

The Treasury Department recently published its monthly treasury statement showing receipts and outlays through September 2024.This monthly statement is of particular interest because it provides the final tally for fiscal year 2024. So, with another wastrel year in the books, where did things end up?

For FY2024, the U.S. Treasury collected $4.92 trillion. However, it paid out $6.75 trillion. The difference, the deficit, was $1.83 trillion. And this difference was covered with debt.

The top outlay, of no surprise, was social security, which totaled $1.4 trillion. This was followed by health at $912 billion. The third highest outlay was net interest on the debt, which came in at $882 billion. Of note, net interest on the debt exceeded both Medicare ($874 billion) and national defense ($874 billion).

Net interest on the debt increased dramatically in FY2024 because of relatively higher interest rates. As comparison, in FY2023 net interest on the debt was $659 billion and in FY2022 it was just $475 billion. In other words, net interest on the debt was roughly 85 percent higher in FY2024 than it was just two years ago. Continue reading

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