Be Careful What You Wish For

Posted on June 27, 2025 by MN Gordon

The U.S. national debt recently topped $37 trillion. This comes to over $323,000 for every U.S. taxpayer.

What’s more, $37 trillion amounts to a debt to gross domestic product (GDP) ratio of over 123 percent. For perspective, the debt to GDP ratio was just 57 percent in the year 2000. Less than half of today.

Back then, the federal budget deficit was practically a non-issue. Washington, for a brief moment, even ran a budget surplus. The Congressional Budget Office (CBO) was so excited by this that it forecast continuous surpluses for years to come.

But, alas, it was not to be. Today, a quarter century into the new millennium, we’re facing record debt and runaway deficits. In fact, the monthly Treasury statement for the 2025 fiscal year through May 31, shows a deficit of $1.365 trillion. Yet there’s still four months left in the 2025 fiscal year to go.

This means the U.S. government will likely run a $2 trillion deficit for this fiscal year, which would be somewhere between 6 and 7 percent of GDP. And that’s assuming there isn’t a major war or recession to really blow out the budget. Continue reading →

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LALA Land is Coming to a Town Near You

Posted on June 20, 2025 by MN Gordon

“I guess I just wasn’t made for these times.” – Brian Wilson, R.I.P.

California Dreamin’ in LALA Land

Southern California has wonderful weather. Within the coastal zone it’s especially wonderful. The sun shines brightly every day, there’s low humidity, and a cool breeze wafts off the Pacific Ocean making things perfectly pleasant. You just can’t beat it.

But for every sweet smelling rose there’s a stem full of jagged thorns. In Southern California, the traffic, cost of living, state and local government taxes, and the large swaths of urban blight and homeless encampments fall far short of perfection.

The remnant luster of Hollywood’s golden age was irreversibly corroded with the slaying of Sharon Tate and her unborn baby by the Manson Family in the early morning hours of August 9, 1969. By then, the cultural decline of Los Angeles was already well underway.

Brian Wilson lost his mind in 1964. The Watts Riots burned hot in 1965. And by 1967, Pacific Ocean Park – a rival to Disneyland – had fallen to terminal disrepair.

The inflation of the 1970s blighted the expansive boulevards and urban sprawl. By the 1980s kids like Jordan Hiller were overdosing on doors and fours. Others found joy in bashing their heads in. Filmmaker Penelope Spheeris captured the aesthetic in the documentary, The Decline of Western Civilization. Continue reading →

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The CAPE Crusader Unveils a Bubble

Posted on June 13, 2025 by MN Gordon

On May 12, the professional tea leaf readers at Goldman Sachs Research predicted the S&P 500 would increase by about 11 percent to 6,500 over the next 12 months. We’re one month into the forecast, and the S&P 500 has increased from 5,844 to 6,045 – or by about 3.4 percent.

Goldman’s optimism was based on reduced U.S.-China tariff anxieties, and better than expected economic growth forecasts. The bank’s economists put the chance of a U.S. recession at just 35 percent over the coming 12 months, with GDP expected to expand by 1.6 percent.

The big question David Kostin, chief equity strategist at Goldman, wants answered is “who is going to pay the increased tariffs?”

Will Chinese producers eat the costs? Will Walmart take it out of its already razor thin profit margins? Will consumers get stuck with higher prices?

These questions will not be answered for another quarter or more. First quarter earnings showed a healthy 12 percent year-over-year growth. But this was before the trade war kicked in. Second quarter results are when we’ll likely start seeing impacts from reduced demand and diminished profit margins. Continue reading →

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The DogeFather in Exile

Posted on June 6, 2025 by MN Gordon

We wanted Elon Musk to succeed. We were pulling for his full triumph. He’s blasted countless satellites into orbit. He put EVs on the road. He saved free speech on social media. If anyone could cut $2 trillion in annual waste, he’s the guy.

The task for DOGE was simple enough. Musk would apply the disruptive magic of Silicon Valley to the grim halls of Washington. He’d shutter all the useless agencies that specialize in pointless minutia and archaic laws and regulations. He’d eliminate waste and make the government more efficient. Why not?

All in all, from our observations and experiences, ambition and reality generally do not line up. What little boy doesn’t dream of being an astronaut or a starting pitcher for the Los Angeles Dodgers when he grows up? How many live this out?

Nonetheless, we believe the best personal and professional endeavors are those that are nearly impossible to attain. There are others, however, that are absolutely futile. Sending people to Mars, for example, is on the spectrum of nearly impossible. Making the federal government efficient is absolutely futile. Continue reading →

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