Numbers may seem like hard facts. But they are rigorously flexible in the right hands. The game often involves framing. Politicians and bureaucrats are masters of it.
Here’s a typical example: “Our no child goes to sleep hungry program has reduced hunger by 10 percent.”
Sounds great, right? But what if hunger was at an all-time high just before the policy was enacted? A 10 percent drop from a massive peak might still mean hunger is higher than it was five years ago.
This is called “cherry-picking” the timeline. By choosing a specific start date, they can paint a rosier picture than reality. As an aside, the charts and figures included in mutual fund brochures cherry-pick timelines to perfection.
Another favorite trick is using different metrics. A politician might boast about “record-low unemployment.” But what if that’s because many people have simply given up looking for work and are no longer counted in the official numbers?
They’re technically not “unemployed,” but they’re also not working. The statistic is technically correct. Yet it hides a more complex, less favorable story about the economy. Continue reading
