The War and Peace of Secular Market Cycles

Projections from the Congressional Budget Office show Washington racking up an additional $20.2 trillion in debt over the next decade.  That would put the national debt somewhere around $54 trillion.

The national debt, which is the accumulation of annual budget deficits, is growing at a rate of roughly $2 trillion per year.  Much of this debt is needed to make good on mandatory outlays like social security, medicare, and health spending.  Some of the debt covers discretionary spending such as defense and transportation.

There’s also net interest on debt.  This recently topped $1 trillion a year for the first time ever.  Washington is essentially borrowing money to pay the interest on the debt.  This is no way to run a country.

These projections – the $2 trillion per year deficits – generally assume everything remains status quo.  That real gross domestic product increases at an annual rate of 2.4 percent.  And that there are no new wars, pandemics, or other freedom inhibiting crisis events – whether intentional or not – that would blow these budget projections out of the water. Continue reading

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Once Upon a Time in Flagstaff

During the great bond bull market from September 1981 to July 2020 the yield on the 10-Year Treasury note fell from 15.32 percent to 0.62 percent.  Since then, the yield has spiked up to where it currently sits at about 4.66 percent.

The rapid interest rate flux has been unpleasant for bankers, borrowers, and businesses.  By our estimation the unpleasantness has only just begun.

After nearly 40 years of ever forgiving credit markets, where debts could be refinanced at lower and lower rates, there’s an abundance of rottenness to be purged from the system.  The great asset price liquidation is still forthcoming.  That’s our expectation, should central planner’s stay out of it.

But what if the pain has already come and gone?

Could the worst bond bear market in the 247-year history of the United States be coming to an end?  Is now a good time for stock market investors to buy shares of their favorite businesses? Continue reading

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Death to Savers

The Federal Reserve artificially suppressed interest rates from roughly 2008 to 2022.  It did so by creating $8 trillion of credit out of thin air to buy Treasuries and mortgage-backed securities.

This pushed stock, bond, and real estate markets well beyond what the underlying economy could support.  Falsified interest rates also birthed wild objects of speculation.

Speculative manias always gain momentum through the expansion of credit.  A look back at past manias tells a familiar story.

For example, the mania for tulips in Holland in 1636 and 1637 was intensified by personal credit.  At the peak, sellers had no bulbs.  Yet buyers, lacking cash, made down payments with personal possessions.

John Law’s Mississippi Bubble from 1718 to 1720 was puffed up by paper notes issued by his Banque Générale, later the Banque Royale.  The mania for residential real estate from 2003 to 2007, was made possible by low interest rates and the expansion of credit through mortgage-backed securities. Continue reading

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Everything’s Spooktacular

October wouldn’t be complete without a thrilling spooktacular surprise.  The October 7 sneak attack by Hamas on Israel and Israel’s subsequent official declaration of war certainly fits the bill.  But what else?

As we see it, the performance of the U.S. economy and financial markets over the next 6 months will be a function of consumer price inflation, interest rates, and oil prices.  A new war in the Middle East has the potential to dramatically influence these central economic components.

To be clear, the rampant money printing from 2020-2022 never really ended.  Yes, the Federal Reserve has hiked the federal funds rate 5.25 percent and has made incremental reductions to its balance sheet – drawing down from $8.9 trillion to $7.9 trillion.

But the federal government continues to borrow and spend like drunken sailors.  The U.S. 2023 fiscal year deficit came in at $1.7 trillion.  That amounts to over $4.6 billion of borrowing and spending per day. Continue reading

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