Before the Devil Knows You’re Dead

Posted on November 10, 2015 by MN Gordon

Something rather strange is going on.  Ten year Treasury yields and gold are simultaneously envisaging inflation and deflation.  Yields on the ten year Treasury note have jumped from 1.98 percent to 2.34 percent during the last 30 days.  Gold’s price, on the other hand, has dropped about $100 an ounce during this same time.

Who’s right…Treasury yields or gold?  Will there be inflation or deflation?

These were the questions that faded from our thoughts as we traversed east along the 60 freeway from Los Angeles to Oak Glen last Saturday.  The answers seemed to matter less and less the further the urban sprawl receded behind us.

Oak Glen, located just past the outer limits of Southern California’s sea of concrete, is a world apart.  The air is clean and crisp at its mile high elevation.  The locals are relaxed and amiable…not frenetic and mad.

There are no stoplights or franchise drive-thrus.  Billboards and transmission lines do not blight the landscape. Continue reading →

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Another Government Ponzi Scheme Starts to Crack – Do You Depend on It?

Posted on November 6, 2015 by MN Gordon

Another Government Ponzi Scheme Starts to Crack – Do You Depend on It?
By Nick Giambruno, International Man

Government employees get to do a lot of things that would land an ordinary citizen in prison.

For example, it’s legal for them to threaten and commit offensive, rather than defensive, violence.  They can take property from others without their consent.  They spy on anyone’s email and bank accounts whenever they please.  They go into trillions of dollars in debt and then stick the unborn with the bill.  They counterfeit the currency.  They lie with misleading statistics and use accounting wizardry no business could get away.  And this just scratches the surface…

The U.S. government also gets to run a special type of Ponzi scheme.

According to the Merriam-Webster dictionary a Ponzi scheme is:

“[A]n investment swindle in which some early investors are paid off with money put up by later ones in order to encourage more and bigger risks.” Continue reading →

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Garbage In Garbage Out Economics

Posted on November 3, 2015 by MN Gordon

“On two occasions I have been asked, “Pray, Mr. Babbage, if you put into the machine the wrong figures, will the right answers come out? …I am not able rightly to apprehend the kind of confusion of ideas that could provoke such a question.” – Charles Babbage, Passages from the Life of a Philosopher.

Crunching Data to Fix Prices

The fundamental problem facing today’s economy is the flagrant contempt by governments the world over for the free exchange of goods and services and private stewardship of property.  Perhaps it is power and control governments are after.  Maybe they believe they are improving the economy and making the world a better place for all.

No one really knows for sure.  But what is lucidly clear is the muddled disorder modern day economic policies have wrought upon us.  You can hardly enter into a transaction without a cluster of intervention mucking with the price of payment.

Taxes, tariffs, wage laws, and subsidies.  These all impact prices.  But the main culprit affecting prices and trade are central bank interventions into money and credit markets.  Relentless actions to control the economy by manipulating money and credit stand the price of everything else on end. Continue reading →

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The Exhilarating Romp to DOW 30,000

Posted on October 30, 2015 by MN Gordon

The stock market appears to have resumed its upward trajectory.  The S&P 500’s back above its 200 day moving average.  In fact, the S&P 500’s less than 50 points from its all-time high of about 2,131.

Soon the brief panic in August and September will be nothing more than a mere blip on the price chart.  A convenient toehold where stocks dug in, coiled up, and then sprang to a new record level from.  Buy the dip aficionados will point to it for validation and self-satisfaction.

By all accounts, stocks are nearly as expensive as they’ve ever been.  No matter how you slice and dice it – be it the Shiller’s Cyclically Adjusted Price Earnings (CAPE) ratio or the Buffett indicator – overall stock prices are a complete and total rip off.  This simple fact is being largely ignored at the moment.

On top of that, treasury yields – which move inverse to price – are skidding along the bottom of a 30-plus year credit cycle.  When yields finally turn, they could rise for the next 20 years.  Conversely, when yields finally rise in earnest, asset prices will deflate as borrowing costs increase. Continue reading →

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