The Muted Delight of the Forthcoming Recession

Posted on January 8, 2016 by MN Gordon

One week down.  Fifty-one more to go.  No doubt, this has been a wild start to the New Year.  We expect many more to follow.

For example, on Monday, Chinese investors overloaded the Shanghai Stock Exchange.  An abundance of traders hit the sell button in unison and nearly shorted out the sell side circuit.  By early afternoon the breakers had tripped to prevent a full market meltdown.  Here are the particulars, as reported by Bloomberg…

“The worst-ever start to a year for Chinese shares triggered a trading halt in more than $7 trillion of equities, futures and options, putting the nation’s new market circuit breakers to the test on their first day.

“Trading was halted at about 1:34 p.m. local time on Monday after the CSI 300 Index dropped 7 percent.  An earlier 15-minute suspension at the 5 percent level failed to stop the retreat, with shares extending losses as soon as the market re-opened.”

Data showing Chinese manufacturing contracted for a fifth straight month was cited as having prompting the mass selloff. Continue reading →

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Who Will Be President and Other Hunches for 2016

Posted on January 1, 2016 by MN Gordon

The New Year is here.  The slate’s been wiped clean.  New hopes.  New dreams.  They’re all accessible.  They’re all within reach.  No doubt, 2016 will be the year you get everything you deserve in life.  But what else will happen?

Today we squint our eyes and peer deep into the crystal ball.  There, at the center of the orbuculum’s refractive light, we scry visions of what’s to come in the year ahead.

Will stocks go up or down?  What about gold?  Are we destined for World War III?  Who will be the next President of the United States?

These are the questions – and more – we intend to answer.  Obviously, clairvoyance via crystal gazing is more art than science.  But so is taking a charted wave pattern and extending resistance and support lines out into the future.

Remember, past performance is no guarantee of future results.  Thus, we’re eschewing common forecasting techniques for a metaphysical approach.  But before we gaze into our trusty crystal ball and let it rip, several words of caution… Continue reading →

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Doom and Gloom for North American Oil Producers

Posted on December 29, 2015 by MN Gordon

To the dismay of U.S. shale producers, oil prices continue their long slow slide into the abyss.  Perhaps the current price of $35 per barrel – an 11 year low – is the final destination.  More than likely, however, it’s a brief reprieve before the next descent.

Oil exporters, including Saudi Arabia and Russia, have maintained high production rates.  Their goal is to bankrupt U.S. shale companies and preserve market share.  At the same time, oil demand is tapering as the global economy cools.

The combination of high production and declining demand has resulted in excess supply, and lower prices.  The trend of lower prices won’t change until either demand increases or production decreases.  At the moment, it doesn’t appear that either of these factors will change any time soon.

So how low can oil prices go?  If you recall, in the late-1990s, oil prices dropped below $20 per barrel.  Goldman Sachs thinks we’ll see $20 per barrel oil again.

Obviously, oil prices can’t go to zero. Continue reading →

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Christmas Edition

Posted on December 25, 2015 by MN Gordon

On this special day of redemption and reconciliation, we take pause from our usual reflections on the economy and financial markets.  It’s Christmas Day, after all.  Why not keep things merry?

Hence, what follows is the poem Christmas Past, by Carice Williams.  Perhaps it will revive a fond childhood Christmas memory or two.  Enjoy!

Christmas Past

Christmas Past, by Carice Williams

Each Christmas I remember
The ones of long ago;
I see our mantelpiece adorned
With stockings in a row.

Each Christmas finds me dreaming
Of days that used to be, Continue reading →

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