Earthquake Economics

“The United States of America, right now, has the strongest, most durable economy in the world,” said President Obama, in his State of the Union address, on Tuesday night.  What performance metrics he based his assertion on is unclear.  But we’ll give him the benefit of the doubt.

Maybe this is so…right now.  But it isn’t eternal.  For at grade, hidden in plain sight, a braid of positive and negative surface flowers indicate an economic strike-slip fault extends below.  What’s more, the economy’s foundation dangerously straddles across it.

Something must slip.  A massive vertical rupture is coming that will collapse everything within a wide-ranging proximity.  It is not a matter of if it will come.  But, rather, of when…regardless of what the President says.

Here at the Economic Prism we have no reservations about the U.S. – or world – economy.  We see absurdities and inconsistencies.  We see instabilities perilously pyramided up, which could rapidly cascade down.  We just don’t know when. Continue reading

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The Muted Delight of the Forthcoming Recession

One week down.  Fifty-one more to go.  No doubt, this has been a wild start to the New Year.  We expect many more to follow.

For example, on Monday, Chinese investors overloaded the Shanghai Stock Exchange.  An abundance of traders hit the sell button in unison and nearly shorted out the sell side circuit.  By early afternoon the breakers had tripped to prevent a full market meltdown.  Here are the particulars, as reported by Bloomberg

“The worst-ever start to a year for Chinese shares triggered a trading halt in more than $7 trillion of equities, futures and options, putting the nation’s new market circuit breakers to the test on their first day.

“Trading was halted at about 1:34 p.m. local time on Monday after the CSI 300 Index dropped 7 percent.  An earlier 15-minute suspension at the 5 percent level failed to stop the retreat, with shares extending losses as soon as the market re-opened.”

Data showing Chinese manufacturing contracted for a fifth straight month was cited as having prompting the mass selloff. Continue reading

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Who Will Be President and Other Hunches for 2016

The New Year is here.  The slate’s been wiped clean.  New hopes.  New dreams.  They’re all accessible.  They’re all within reach.  No doubt, 2016 will be the year you get everything you deserve in life.  But what else will happen?

Today we squint our eyes and peer deep into the crystal ball.  There, at the center of the orbuculum’s refractive light, we scry visions of what’s to come in the year ahead.

Will stocks go up or down?  What about gold?  Are we destined for World War III?  Who will be the next President of the United States?

These are the questions – and more – we intend to answer.  Obviously, clairvoyance via crystal gazing is more art than science.  But so is taking a charted wave pattern and extending resistance and support lines out into the future.

Remember, past performance is no guarantee of future results.  Thus, we’re eschewing common forecasting techniques for a metaphysical approach.  But before we gaze into our trusty crystal ball and let it rip, several words of caution… Continue reading

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Doom and Gloom for North American Oil Producers

To the dismay of U.S. shale producers, oil prices continue their long slow slide into the abyss.  Perhaps the current price of $35 per barrel – an 11 year low – is the final destination.  More than likely, however, it’s a brief reprieve before the next descent.

Oil exporters, including Saudi Arabia and Russia, have maintained high production rates.  Their goal is to bankrupt U.S. shale companies and preserve market share.  At the same time, oil demand is tapering as the global economy cools.

The combination of high production and declining demand has resulted in excess supply, and lower prices.  The trend of lower prices won’t change until either demand increases or production decreases.  At the moment, it doesn’t appear that either of these factors will change any time soon.

So how low can oil prices go?  If you recall, in the late-1990s, oil prices dropped below $20 per barrel.  Goldman Sachs thinks we’ll see $20 per barrel oil again.

Obviously, oil prices can’t go to zero. Continue reading

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