The Recline and Flail of Western Civilization and Other 2019 Predicitions

Posted on December 28, 2018 by MN Gordon

“I think it’s a tremendous opportunity to buy.  Really a great opportunity to buy.” – President Donald Trump, Christmas Day 2018

Today, as we prepare to close out the old, we offer a vast array of tidings.  We  bring words of doom and despair.  We bring words of contemplation and reflection.  And we also bring words of hope and sunshine.

After all, the New Year’s nearly here.  What better time than now to turn over a new leaf?  New dreams, new directions, and new delusions, are all before us like a patch of ripe strawberries.  Today’s the day to make a double fisted grab for all of them – and more.

Rest assured, 2019 will be the year that everything happens precisely as it should.  Some good.  Some bad.  Indeed, each day shall unfold before you in symbiotic disharmony.  You can count on it.

But what else?  What are the essential anticipations as we embark on a new voyage around the sun?  What about stocks, the 10-Year Treasury note, gold, and everything else?  Are we fated for complete societal breakdown?  Will this be the year the Fed put finally bites the dust? Continue reading →

Posted in Economy, MN Gordon | Tagged , , , , , | 1 Comment

Merry Christmas Eddie Lampert!

Posted on December 21, 2018 by MN Gordon

Heading into the final weekend before Christmas we’ll take a brief hiatus from the economy and markets.  We do so, however, with intent and purpose.  Our principal objective is to offer peace and joy as you go about your merry way.

Who wants to contemplate the unemployment rate or the consumer price index while singing Silent Night at a candlelight Christmas Eve service?  Who wants to chat about Fed policy or what exactly composes a high yield ETF over an Old Fashioned with their father-in-law?

A word to the wise: politics and religion at the dinner table should always be eschewed for NCAA football and new fishing gear.  You may dislike Nick Saban.  But everyone can agree that Tua Tagovailoa was outright robbed of the Heisman Trophy.  Similarly, everyone can agree that freshwater fishing takes much greater skill than deep sea fishing.

But we won’t stop with just two innocuous conversation topics.  We’ll go several steps further and do you a grand favor.  For everyone likes a story about bigtime blunders involving possible improprieties.  This is especially so when the characters travel within select inner circles, and the lines between heroes and villains are blurred beyond all recognition. Continue reading →

Posted in Business, MN Gordon | Tagged , , , , | Leave a comment

How Faux Capitalism Works in America

Posted on December 14, 2018 by MN Gordon

The U.S. stock market’s recent zigs and zags have provoked much squawking and screeching.  Wall Street pros, private money managers, and Millennial index fund enthusiasts all find themselves on the wrong side of the market’s swift movements.  Even the best and brightest can’t escape President Trump’s tweet precipitated short squeezes.

The short-term significance of the DJIA’s 8 percent decline since early-October is uncertain.  For all we know, stocks could run up through the end of the year.  Stranger things have happened.

What’s also uncertain is the nature of this purge: Is this another soft decline like that of mid-2015 to early-2016, where the DJIA fell 12 percent before quickly resuming its uptrend?  Or is this the start of a brutal bear market – the kind that wipes out portfolios and blows up investment funds?

The stars in the night’s sky tell us this is the latter.  For example, when peering out into the night’s sky even the most untrained eye can identify the three ominous stars that are lining up with mechanical precision. Continue reading →

Posted in Government Debt, MN Gordon | Tagged , , , , | 3 Comments

Paper Lanterns

Posted on December 7, 2018 by MN Gordon

There are numerous explanations for just what in the heck is going on with the economy.  Some are good.  Many are bad.  Today we’ll do our part to bring clarity to disorder…

Several backward looking economic fundamentals show all is well.  Third quarter gross domestic product increased at an annual rate of 3.5 percent.  And the unemployment rate, if you exclude something called discouraged workers, is just 3.7 percent – a near 50 year low.  By these metrics, the economy’s never been better.

Still, it doesn’t take much snooping around to uncover what’s really going on.  For cracks in the economy’s foundation are transforming from minor hairline fissures to full blown surface fractures at about double the rate that Imperial Valley mud volcanoes are consuming Union Pacific Railroad tracks.  These full blown surface fractures will further multiply as the planet approaches the next financial crisis.

At the moment, for example, the auto manufacturing and housing sectors are breaking down.  Last week, General Motors announced they plan to cut 14,000 jobs and close five factories.  What in the world’s going on? Continue reading →

Posted in MN Gordon, Politics | Tagged , , , , | Leave a comment