Debt Ceilings are for Idiots

Posted on January 20, 2023 by MN Gordon

Clear thinking.  Logical assumptions.  Well-reasoned conclusions.  Such principles are in low supply these days.  But are they in high demand?

Readers who have suffered the financial pinch and frustration of a large project gone sideways know that professional life is rarely neat and almost never tidy.  One team member’s obsessive focus on minutia can quickly burn through the budget.  A zealous regulator or supply chain breakdown can wreak havoc on the schedule.

There are, however, special benefits that are earned when taking a run through the meat grinder.  For one, there are countless opportunities to build character, regardless of if one desires a slice of humble pie.

We worked as a project manager for an international consulting firm for over two decades.  Bidding, winning (and losing), contracting, delivering, and billing work was our daily focus.

Anyone who’s ever earned their living in this game can testify that it’s a terrible business.  Still, the character-building experiences are priceless. Continue reading →

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Will You Beat Uncle Sam’s Relentless Pursuit of Your Wealth?

Posted on January 13, 2023 by MN Gordon

The United States is lurching towards an epic financial catastrophe.  This isn’t a novel insight.  The great tragedy has been in the works for decades.  Anyone with a mild inkling of curiosity knows what’s going on.

According to the U.S. Census Bureau’s population clock, the U.S. population is over 334 million.  This, no doubt, is a lot of mouths to feed and people to clothe and shelter.  But that’s not all.

Many of these people also need some sort of medical care throughout the year.  Some may break their arm.  Others may have their appendix burst or suffer cardiac arrest.  There are also serious medical emergencies from car accidents or other hazards.

In an economy characterized by limited government and individual liberty people are self-supporting.  They provide the means to pay for these needs through the fruits of their own labors.  Minors are supported by their families until they can provide for themselves.  The elderly may fall back on their kids if they didn’t squirrel away enough nuts during their working years. Continue reading →

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Are You Prepared for a Hard Landing?

Posted on January 6, 2023 by MN Gordon

The New Year brings both optimism and hope.  A chance to start fresh.  To turn over a new leaf.

The sentiment is welcome.  The outcome, however, can be a grave disappointment.

If you recall, 2022 was supposed to be a year of redemption and prosperity.  After the ugly coronavirus fiasco, the economy was finally reopening.  The general belief was that the resurgence of economic activity was going to bring a new boom and a new cycle of prosperity.

But then something unexpected happened.  On the first day of market trading, January 3, 2022, the S&P 500 hit a closing peak of 4,796.  Yesterday, just over a year later, the S&P 500 closed at 3,808.  Down over 20 percent.

Over this duration, the yield on the 10-Year Treasury note spiked from 1.66 percent to 3.70 percent.  In other words, Uncle Sam’s borrowing costs have more than doubled.

At the same time, transitory inflation proved to be enduring.  And gross domestic product (GDP) went negative for the first two quarters of 2022. Continue reading →

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One Great Big Nasty Prediction for 2023

Posted on December 30, 2022 by MN Gordon

Welcome to 2023!

The New Year’s edition of the Economic Prism is a place of wild conjecture and rough suppositions.  A place where abstract thinking is celebrated.  Imaginative cycle theories, deep metaphysics, fractal wave patterns, happy accidents, and amateur fortune tellers of all stripes are invited too.

Today, with perfect 20/20 vision, we set our sights on the year ahead.  After all, the New Year’s here.  What better time than now to peer out 12 months through our proprietary prism and report back what we see?

On the periphery, we find new dreams, new directions, and new delusions, swirling about like storm clouds interspersed with warm radiant light.  We see opportunities and contretemps.  We see doom and despair.  And we also see hope and redemption.

But what else?  What are the essential insights you should take along as you set out to make another pass around the sun?

What does the New Year have slated for stocks, the 10-Year Treasury note, gold, oil, bitcoin, and everything else?  Will junk bonds be roiled by massive corporate defaults? Continue reading →

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